Informed Speculation

…the city, I mean, so that made me a Saints fan.  Congrats to that fun, fun city that has suffered so much recently for this wonderful win tonight (I’m writing this with two minutes to, but it’s over).  Way to go, Saints!…

Avatar, now the #1 movie of all time both domestically and internationally by significant (non-inflation-adjusted) margins, has been dethroned – in its eighth weekend, it dropped to #2.  The James Cameron 3-D spectacular has now grossed over $2.1 billion worldwide and $630 million in the U.S. (and it’s not done yet!).  The previous record-holder, Cameron’s Titanic, grossed $600 million domestically and $1.8 billion internationally…

Also, the story that has preoccupied me personally has taken another hopeful turn.  About 100 people turned out at the delicious Maria’s Taco XPress yesterday for the first organizing meeting of Save the Cactus:

About 100 grass-roots supporters trying to keep the iconic Cactus Cafe from closing met on Saturday with plans to save and make profitable the landmark music venue.

Gathered on the patio of Maria’s Taco Xpress, the organizers of Save the Cactus Cafe passed out a draft plan to keep the cafe in the student union of the University of Texas.

Already, the group — formed in response to the university’s recent decision to close the cafe — established the Web site SavetheCactusCafe.org and a Facebook page with more than 20,000 fans.

…The group’s organizers are developing and naming a nonprofit for the movement; they began collecting checks Saturday. They said they were also reaching out to students for support. Under the group’s plan, students would be given greater access and control in management, booking and performing.

Organizers also hope to offer cafe internships, a student artist-in-residence program and marketing projects to increase revenue of the cafe.

…“I, and my office, will do everything in my power to keep the Cactus open,” said state Rep. Elliot Naishtat, D-Austin, whose district includes UT. “This is something important to the Forty Acres and the whole community.”

Attendees broke into groups and began signing on to committees to fundraise, organize volunteers and organize other events.

“We’re going to continue to mobilize and recruit more and more people,” Nelson said.

Keep up the pressure!…

I suppose it would be better than nothing, but the only real plan floated to save the Cactus Cafe (see my post below) thus far is far from perfect:

The storied Cactus Cafe could be finding a new home on the University of Texas campus — the Etter-Harbin Alumni Center.

Texas Exes CEO and executive director Jim Boon spoke with UT president Bill Powers Tuesday about the idea of incorporating the Cactus Cafe into a planned building expansion set for 2011.

University officials announced over the weekend that the Texas Union would be closing the Cactus Cafe in August due to budget cuts. Informal Classes, too, are set to end.

“We understand the financial pressure the University is under and recognize that it needs to be focused on delivering services to students,” Boon said. “As keepers of the history and traditions of the University, we are always sensitive to experiences that touch students’ lives and create memories for alumni.”

President Powers is scheduled to hold a town hall meeting Tuesday on campus to discuss the proposed budget cuts, including the fate of the Cactus Cafe.

Reaction to the news of the Cactus’ impending closure has been overwhelmingly negative, particularly from alumni. A Facebook group started over the weekend Save the Cactus Cafe currently has more than 13,600 members. University officials have defended the cuts as necessary.

The plan to move the Cactus Cafe to the alumni center would not involve helping Informal Classes.

If adopted, and there were no legal obstacles, the Cactus Cafe would keep its name. The alumni center has its own liquor license and could serve alcohol at performances.

The move could be completed and performances resumed as early as fall 2011.

Let’s be clear about this:  I appreciate the gesture by the Texas Exes and I would welcome this in place of total closure.

But let’s also be clear about this:  it’s not about having a place for live music – Austin has hundreds of live music venues.  It’s about THIS place – THIS room – THIS unique setting.  You can’t take the Cactus Cafe and move it somewhere else and expect it to be remotely the same. 

Kudos to the Texas Exes for thinking creatively – but this is not the end.  Keep up the pressure – write the regents!  Write President Powers!  Write the Statesman!  Write the Chronicle!  If you care about the Cactus, let your voice be heard.  The friends of “Save the Cactus Cafe” are now over 15,300 strong, but it takes more than “friending” a Facebook page to move public opinion.  We’ve got some momentum…now is not the time to let up…and any musicians out there who might stumble by here – let’s start having some benefits!  Let’s raise some big bucks and show the UT brass the only thing they care about – dollar signs…

Here’s another great Bob Schneider clip from the unbelievably awesome Cactus Cafe:

I care about music. That’s obvious to everyone who visits this blog. I care about music so much I based my decision on where to live on my love of music. Austin, TX, is my home for one reason and one reason only: I came here to see the greatest live music on the planet.  I have memories that will last a lifetime of a thousand shows, and I can remember something about almost every one of them.

Dozens of those shows have been at the Cactus Cafe on the campus of the University of Texas.  The Cactus is perhaps THE premiere venue in town for those who truly care about music.  At the Cactus, there is no talking during acts – there are no cell phones – there are no distractions.  It is about the music.  The soul of Austin, Townes Van Zandt, played at the Cactus over 100 times.  Lyle Lovett played some of his first gigs there.  I have seen Joe Ely tear up the stage there on too many nights to count.  I saw a young Ryan Bingham, recent winner of the Golden Globe, and perhaps soon the Oscar, put on an electrifying performance. 

I have been at the Cactus on nights that will live forever in my mind.  And now UT wants to close it to save a lousy $122,000 a year.

Do you have ANY clue how big the budget of the University of Texas is?  Do you know how much money Mack Brown makes in a year?  Do you have the slightest idea what the Cactus means to Austin?  If you live in Austin, you know the answer to all these questions, and you know that this decision is outrageous.

Yes, the Cactus serves mostly nonstudents – so what?  The University has brought much to Austin, but Austin has brought far, far more to the University.  Every year, tens of thousands of students enroll at UT for one big reason: Austin.  Very few people come to UT because of the faculty (sorry, Jacques!).  They come here because of the location.  Yes, Austin would not be Austin without the University of Texas – but UT would be almost nothing without Austin.

This city is full of vibrant, bright, young, resourceful minds – SURELY someone can come up with a plan that closes a lousy hundred grand a year spending gap.  This town has already lost the Armadillo World Headquarters.  It’s already lost the Soap Creek Saloon.  It’s already lost Liberty Lunch.  It’s already lost Steamboat.  If you know this town and its history, you know the meaning of those revered names. You know the memories that were forged there.  You know the heart and soul of this town beats with its music, and you know that the Cactus is worth far, far more than the nickel-and-dime price put on its head by UT administrators.

Today at 4:00 p.m., the University holds a town hall meeting at 24th and Speedway, in the Avaya Auditorium of the ACES building, room 2.302.  The “Save the Cactus Cafe” site on Facebook is already nearing 13,000 friends.  If a fraction of those people show up to be heard, we can bring that town hall meeting to a halt.  The relationship between UT and the citizens of Austin is a reciprocal, bilateral one.  We do not have to stand for decisions that impact our community negatively because we are not students at UT.  We have a right to be heard because we live in the city that has given so much to the university – and we will be heard.

You can’t take the Cactus Cafe from Austin – not without a fight.  Since this university lives and breathes off of money, I’ll make a pledge right here and now:  if the University of Texas closes the Cactus, I will not attend another sporting event on the University of Texas campus.  I will not park my car in any of its parking garages.  I will not see another concert at the Frank Erwin Center – okay, that last one might be hard – because, after all, I DO love music.  That’s what this is all about.  And ultimatums are hard to live by – but I will promise you this:  I’ll weigh every purchase I make of any item that might benefit the University very carefully – and I’ll cut back on all but the most essential concerts at any venue associated with it.  If everyone in Austin that cared about the Cactus did the same, the University would find out just how small that $122,000 a year is. 

This is Bob Schneider at the Cactus Cafe on 9/11/09, singing the great 40 Dogs (Like Romeo and Juliet):

The great Guy Clark, friend of Townes, with Verlon Thompson, and “The Guitar”:

…and for now, I end with Guy Forsyth and “Plant A Little Seed”:

Speaking with my nephew this morning about Leonard Cohen inspired me to post this bit of weekend fun…the beautiful “Bird On The Wire” (there’s a skip in the tape about five minutes in and it repeats a verse, but it’s a nice clip nonetheless).  Enjoy your Sunday…

I’ve been challenged on numerous occasions to explain what exactly I WOULD support in the realm of providing financing to get additional people on the insurance rolls.  Billy, in a comment on my previous post, provided me with one answer:  end the War on Drugs and provide the savings in subsidies to low-income Americans that could be used only to purchase health care insurance.

Would this finance the elusive “health care for all” dream?  Probably not, in direct savings.  After all, you could only directly use federal savings, not the much larger savings you would see on the state and local level.  If this website is accurate, we probably spend about $25 billion annually in Washington on this hopeless cause.  Still, $25 billion could purchase a lot of coverage.

Now, I know it’s not as simple as that.  But it does highlight the fact that we could easily free up a significant chunk of change without raising taxes by treating drug abuse for what it is: a health problem.  You could get really radical and legalize marijuana and easily raise tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions, more annually – that would be a tax increase millions of Americans would gladly pay.

If you think I’m sitting at home in my pajamas smoking dope as I write this, I don’t blame you.  Most advocates of drug reform/legalization are users.  I personally hate drugs.  I realize I am a hypocrite, because I drink fairly regularly, and alcohol is a drug with enormous societal costs.  But most people would live far better lives if they left every non-medical drug alone, including alcohol (although everyone knows prescription drug abuse is skyrocketing, as well).

The arguments against the War on Drugs are compelling, however:  individual freedom, the erasing of the obscene profits that fuel the violence, the essential undercutting of the source of income for bad guys the world over, including terrorists, and the simple fact that prohibition has proven ineffective in this case.

You want audacity?  A reform package that would combine health care reform with drug policy reform would be truly audacious.  Would it have a snowball’s chance in hell of passing?  Sigh…unfortunately, no.  But I WOULD support it!…

We are told, by supporters of health reform, that it is what Americans want.  I suppose that might be true if America were not already drowning in debt and in a financial crisis that is still far from over.  The evidence is not on the side of the supporters, at any rate.  The voters sent a powerful message in Massachusetts Tuesday, one that was unmistakenly a direct response to Obama’s domestic agenda, most particularly health care.  Scott Brown made it explicit – I will be the 41st vote against the current health care proposals in the Senate.

But the voters are speaking up all over the nation.  55% of Americans tell Gallup that the current proposals should be shelved and alternatives that can garner Republican support should be considered.  61% tell Rasmussen Congress should shelve health care reform and focus on jobs.  Even in Massachusetts, as evidenced by the Brown victory, the margin against the reforms is 48-43.

Congress is tasked with representing its constituents.  Leadership, as I’ve stated elsewhere, doesn’t mean that you will always follow the polls.  However, the stakes of the current proposals could not be higher.  This is one of the few national issues that actually touches the lives of individual Americans in a very profound way.  And the message to Congress is clear:  don’t pass this legislation. 

Congress can listen now, or you can bet they will listen in November…

The big story of the day, of course, is the Massachusetts Senate race.  Given the stakes for health care reform, it may be the biggest single Senate race of my lifetime.  Scott Brown has the momentum and a sizable lead in almost all the late polling, but the Dems will bring a mighty GOTV effort to the table.

More later!..

UPDATE 7:49 p.m.: Well, if pre-election harbingers were good, election night signs aren’t great…Boston is going heavily against Brown with 10% of the vote in, and Brown trails Romney’s results in several key towns…

UPDATE 8:09 p.m.:  Last twenty minutes have been better for Brown…he’s holding strong and looks to be the winner…

UPDATE 8:30 p.m.:  Scott Brown has been declared the winner!  This is the biggest non-national election win for the GOP in decades.  What does it mean for health care reform?  It’s either dead, or the Senate version will be quickly passed and rushed through for Obama’s signature….more on the consequences in a later post, probably tomorrow night…

NOTE: For the sixth consecutive year, I am moving this post from 2005 to the top in honor of the great civil rights leader.  It’s a tradition I’m happy to continue, and will probably observe as long as this blog is active…

Today’s OpinionJournal contains a moving piece by Roya Hakakian, the co-founder of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. She describes coming to America as a cynical teenager, suspicious of everything, miserable, a stranger in a strange land; then she saw Dr. King’s ‘I Have a Dream’ speech, and all her misconceptions about America came tumbling down.

It’s that kind of speech, and he’s that kind of man; King’s words, drawing on a long tradition of liberation theology that goes back at least until Moses and the parting of the Red Sea, have an almost mystical ability to inspire millions to this day. Were that his only accomplishment, he would still be worthy of a holiday in his name, but of course, there’s more to King’s legacy than a single speech.

The civil rights movement of the 1960s can be seen in a microcosm in the contrast between two very different men. Spike Lee, among others, makes the distinction between MLK and Malcolm X explicit in such films as School Daze and Do the Right Thing. ‘By any means necessary’ is a rallying cry for the more radical and progressive among us, to be sure, but King rejected the tactics of demonization of his oppressors and violent protest, in the (surely correct) belief that quiet dignity would win more converts than spewing venom. Malcolm wanted to overthrow the white devil; King wanted to change him by using his own conduct towards his fellow man to shame him.

King has his detractors…there are those in the civil rights movement who resented doing the grunt work while King arrived in sync with the television cameras; there are those who accuse him of sympathy with the Communist Party (and it appears he did accept some funds from CPUSA officials). He was a womanizer, and that surely harms our image of him as a forthright, decent man. Mere trivia, all of it, in the face of words such as these:

…Five score years ago, a great American, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today, signed the Emancipation Proclamation. This momentous decree came as a great beacon light of hope to millions of Negro slaves who had been seared in the flames of withering injustice…but one hundred years later, the Negro still is not free…so we have come here today to dramatize a shameful condition…

When the architects of our republic wrote the magnificent words of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence, they were signing a promissory note to which every American was to fall heir. This note was a promise that all men, yes, black men as well as white men, would be guaranteed the unalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness…We refuse to believe that the bank of justice is bankrupt. We refuse to believe that there are insufficient funds in the great vaults of opportunity of this nation…

It would be fatal for the nation to overlook the urgency of the moment. This sweltering summer of the Negro’s legitimate discontent will not pass until there is an invigorating autumn of freedom and equality. Nineteen sixty-three is not an end, but a beginning…but there is something that I must say to my people who stand on the warm threshold which leads into the palace of justice. In the process of gaining our rightful place we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds.

Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred. We must forever conduct our struggle on the high plane of dignity and discipline. We must not allow our creative protest to degenerate into physical violence. Again and again we must rise to the majestic heights of meeting physical force with soul force. The marvelous new militancy which has engulfed the Negro community must not lead us to distrust of all white people, for many of our white brothers, as evidenced by their presence here today, have come to realize that their destiny is tied up with our destiny and their freedom is inextricably bound to our freedom. We cannot walk alone. As we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall march ahead. We cannot turn back.

There are those who are asking the devotees of civil rights, “When will you be satisfied?” We can never be satisfied as long as the Negro is the victim of the unspeakable horrors of police brutality. We can never be satisfied, as long as our bodies, heavy with the fatigue of travel, cannot gain lodging in the motels of the highways and the hotels of the cities. We can never be satisfied as long as a Negro in Mississippi cannot vote and a Negro in New York believes he has nothing for which to vote. No, no, we are not satisfied, and we will not be satisfied until justice rolls down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream…

I say to you today, my friends, so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream.

I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: “We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal.”

I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character. I have a dream today.

I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of interposition and nullification; one day right there in Alabama, little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers. I have a dream today.

I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight, and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed, and all flesh shall see it together…

With this faith we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day. This will be the day when all of God’s children will be able to sing with a new meaning, “My country, ’tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, of thee I sing. Land where my fathers died, land of the pilgrim’s pride, from every mountainside, let freedom ring.” And if America is to be a great nation this must become true.

So let freedom ring from the prodigious hilltops of New Hampshire. Let freedom ring from the mighty mountains of New York. Let freedom ring from the heightening Alleghenies of Pennsylvania! Let freedom ring from the snowcapped Rockies of Colorado! Let freedom ring from the curvaceous slopes of California! But not only that; let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia! Let freedom ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee! Let freedom ring from every hill and molehill of Mississippi. From every mountainside, let freedom ring. And when this happens, when we allow freedom to ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God’s children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual, “Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!”

It is now undeniable:  Scott Brown has the momentum in the Massachusetts Senate race, and the cause is health care.  That should be horrifying news to Democrats – and if they had any sanity, they would pull back from the brink and embrace the realization that the voters are preparing to send a powerful message.  How powerful?

Consider that, if Brown is victorious, he will be the first Republican senator from Massachusetts in three decades.  That’s a political shift of seismic proportions.  It doesn’t represent a shift at all, to be more precise – it’s a 180-degree change of direction.

It’s not Tuesday yet, and Brown has not won, but recent polling indicates he has a five to nine point lead heading into the home stretch.  The Democrats are mobilizing, with the help of recently bought-off labor interests (the price?  A five-year delay on taxing “Cadillac” health plans used by unions).  Republicans are more enthusiastic, though, than they have been since the reelection of George W. Bush in 2004. 

Exciting times, once again, for the GOP…

The Massachusetts Senate race is notable for many reasons, and the lesson seems hard to ignore:

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

More here:

Democratic desperation and other compelling evidence strongly suggest that Democrats may well lose the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat in Tuesday’s special election. Because of this, we are moving our rating of the race from Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party to Toss-Up.

Meanwhile, the horse-trading in the ongoing House-Senate negotiations suggests that the deficiti-reducing aspects of the impending health care reform are being bargained away.  Maybe I’m grasping at straws, but if Massachusetts goes Republican on Tuesday, Democrats looking for cover could use a potential negative CBO analysis (I know, I’m jumping the gun) to oppose the reforms on “principle”…

I saw Avatar on opening day, but it was in my recent gloomy period, and I declined to review it.  Yesterday, I saw it for a second time.  This is definitely a movie that holds up well on second viewing – in fact, I liked the movie the first time through and loved it the second.

The problems with the movie are fairly simple to catalog and probably not that controversial, even to fans.  The story is fairly derivative on a high level (it’s as old as Westerns, at least, and probably older).  The dialogue suffers from the same woodenness that most of Cameron’s action movies suffer from.  A couple of the performances are pretty over-the-top and not 100% convincing.  Politically, the movie is fairly anti-American and very much in tune with “green” interests.

All of these things pale next to the technical wizardy, however – and if you’re not seeing this movie in 3D, then you’re throwing away your money.  It’s hard to envision a scenario where Avatar doesn’t win the Oscar in virtually every technical category.  The blending of digital effects and live action has never been so seamless, and the cinematography is breathtaking.  Pandora is a perfectly realized alien environment, and most importantly, the crucial love story at the center of the film rings true. 

One thing is absolutely for certain, though, even if you hated the movie:  James Cameron has his pulse on the type of movie that excites filmgoers.  I don’t consider Cameron nearly as important an artist as Martin Scorcese, Woody Allen, or a dozen other filmmakers I could easily name…but commercially, he dominates the movie business in the way that Spielberg used to.  Avatar is now the #2 movie worldwide of all time, behind…James Cameron’s Titanic.  It’s not entirely impossible now that it might even catch Titanic’s staggering $1.8 billion box office take, as it now stands at $1.3 billion and is still the #1 movie at the box office for a staggering fourth weekend in a row. 

Movies don’t hold like this anymore.  They do amazing numbers their first weekend, then start sinking like a stone.  In fact, it’s pretty standard for most movies to make a full 25% or more of their total boxoffice on opening weekend.  Avatar is simply crushing the (admittedly weak) competition, however.  In this, its 4th weekend, it tripled the money made by its nearest competitors and brought in a healthy $48 million domestically.  There is no reason to think it will not be the #1 movie again next weekend for the fifth time.

Popularity doesn’t make great art…but you have to give respect to a man who has now made two movies that have simply torn up the box office and put up totals that will be very difficult to top for a long, long time.  Cameron has made his second must-see movie in Avatar, miraculously repeating the feat of Titanic.  I’ve already made plans with friends to see it two weeks from now at the IMAX.  I have NEVER seen a movie three times at the theater during its opening run…and I probably never will again.  I guess that makes me a James Cameron fan after all…

…in the performance of the Texas Longhorns last night.  Losing your Heisman candidate senior (who has more wins than any quarterback in NCAA history) in the first quarter is a blow that is impossible to overcome against a team as good as Alabama, but Texas at least made it competitive for a while.  Congrats to both teams, and to the Crimson Tide especially for their championship season.

As for my beloved Red Raiders – well, I might blog more on the Leach fiasco later.  Probably deserves its own post…

It seems as good a topic as any for me to reenter the discussion.  With the announcement of the retirement of Senator Christopher Dodd, pundits are questioning whether a trend is in the offing, and the proximate cause.

In Dodd’s case, it’s simple:  he would lose his bid for reelection because of his far too cozy relationship with Countrywide and his sweetheart mortgage deal from the former CEO.  But the larger question is whether the Democrats are already feeling the fallout from the unpopularity of Barack Obama’s agenda, most prominently the health care reform that a majority of Americans consistently poll as opposed to.

Some might say the decision to enact healthcare reform in the face of such widespread opposition shows the power of the Presidency, as well as the hold Reid and Pelosi have on their respective chambers.  Surprisingly, a senior editor of the National Review thinks otherwise:

Some Democrats have decided, and others will soon decide, to end their political careers rather than let the voters do it for them. The national climate right now is brutal for their party, thanks in part to the painfulness of this economic recovery and in part to public unease with the president’s liberalism. Even if that climate improves by November, the party will suffer as a result of the decisions being made right now by successful Democrats to retire and by talented Republicans to run.

Enacting a modest down payment on the comprehensive health care reform they favor — something the Democrats could have done months ago — would have made their prospects brighter. But a significant fraction of them seems to have concluded that enacting a health-care policy closer to their ideals is worth losing some seats.

Which is awfully refreshing. When Republicans ruled Capitol Hill, was there anything they were prepared to fall on their swords for?

Hmmm…well, I’m a firm believer that principle trumps popularity.  We elect representatives to lead, not just to follow.  It’s worth pondering…but I find the evidence to be slim.  The horsetrading that resulted in the votes of Nelson and Landrieu certainly contradict any theory that the sudden emergence of the magic 60 votes in the Senate was due to a stand on principle.

And it’s worth noting that if it was a stand on principle, it was the principles of the center-left and not the fire-breathing progressives, who remain just as opposed to the current proposals as Republicans, though for far different reasons…

If there’s anyone out there who still gives a rat’s patooie, I’m not hanging up the blog for good – I don’t think.  I don’t see a need to hide things from my small but devoted audience (at least up to now!), and I’ve still being struggling through some personal issues (of a romantic nature, if you care to know).  Everyone who’s ever had one – and that’s just about everyone – knows that a broken heart causes you to be lethargic, inattentive, and unproductive.  I’m on the upswing…so I think I’ll be ready to start blogging again for real soon.  If you’re still out there – wait for me!  In the words of Ah-nuld:  I’ll be back!…

Health reform is going to pass the Senate after all, as Harry Reid bought off Ben Nelson by guaranteeing that the Feds will pay for Nebraska’s new Medicaid enrollees for ever and ever amen.  Of course, when the time comes, all the other states will rightly demand the same treatment, and this mockery of a “deficit reducing” bill will be shown for the sham it is – though far too late to keep our nation from going bankrupt.

Depressing stuff…so let’s turn to the surest antidote – the great one, in fine voice, with a simply lovely tune to brighten up my blues:

So, I’ve been offline for a few days dealing with issues. Why hide it? You guys have issues, I have issues. We’re all people. Still, it’s time for a post.

While I’ve been away, a remarkable change of momentum has occurred.  Health care reform, which seemed virtually certain to pass the Senate a week or two ago, is in serious jeopardy now, with Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson publicly proclaiming their opposition to the bill as is and progressives also showing mounting opposition for different reasons altogether.

I think passage is very doubtful now.  They’re going to have to scrap the Senate bill and start over in the New Year – and that’s a good thing – not because of kneejerk opposition to health care reform, but because this was a bad bill for numerous reasons we may get into later…

…so my little weekend fun clip is a little more on the serious side.  This is a nice performance of the hauntingly beautiful “I and Love and You”, by the Avett Brothers…

…is that costs are out of control.  Availability is generally not a problem (at least for the insured – a big caveat, I grant), nor is quality.  It’s the costs, stupid!

So lowering the cost of health care service would surely be the #1 job of any reform.  But the chief actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services says that the total cost of health care will be HIGHER under the reforms being considered than if nothing at all were done:

Republicans on Friday seized on a report by government actuaries that said the Senate health bill would cause national health costs to rise.

The report, compiled by the chief actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, estimated that total health costs in the U.S. would be $234 billion higher than if the bill weren’t passed. President Barack Obama has said Democrats’ health plan would reduce the growth of health-care costs.

Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said Democratic lawmakers were spending large sums in the health-care bill “to make things worse.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said the report “confirms what we’ve known all along,” arguing that the bill would “increase costs, raise premiums and slash Medicare.” Democrats cited some parts of the report that were more favorable to the bill.

The report said measures in the bill to restrain Medicare costs and trim generous insurance plans “would have a significant downward impact on future health care cost growth rates,” but said those gains would be outweighed in the initial years as newly insured people sought to get more health care.

“This report is yet another clear indicator that we have to act, and act now,” said Sen. Max Baucus (D., Mont.), the chairman of the Finance Committee.

The report said 33 million more U.S. citizens and legal residents would be insured under the bill, resulting in 93% of Americans with health-insurance coverage. But it said the new demand for health care caused by the bill could prove “difficult to meet initially” because doctors and hospitals would charge higher fees in response to the new demand. The report also said the bill’s proposed cuts in Medicare spending “may be unrealistic.”

In addition to expanding coverage, the Senate bill creates a long-term-care insurance program that would provide a daily subsidy for those with disabilities and illnesses who require home-based care. The report cited a risk of “adverse selection,” saying people who were more likely to require care would be more likely to use the new insurance. That could cause insurance payouts to exceed premium revenue.

“There is a very serious risk that the problem of adverse selection would make the [long-term-care insurance] program unsustainable,” the report said.

So, a long-term care program that will have payouts exceeding premium revenue, an onrush of new enrollees (a good thing, no doubt) that will stress available resources and raise premiums and other costs in the short-term, and long-term, savings based on cuts to Medicare spending that “may be unrealistic”.  In other words, the long-term savings, as I’ve said all along, are quite unlikely to ever occur, based as they are on the willingness of future congresses to cut benefits to the highest-proportional-voting segment of the population.

We can’t afford it, folks…

…forged in the Senate that apparently dropped the public option.  Maybe you did…thoughts, anyone?  If not, more when I can follow up…