Informed Speculation

Russ Feingold, Democratic Senator from Wisconsin, has one thing going in his favor: his very strong anti-war credentials. This will help to separate him from the pack, and bring him a lot of money and attention. The activist side of the party will embrace him (as indeed they already have). Yet, as Howard Dean showed us, that’s not nearly enough to capture the nomination, much less the White House.

Russell Dana Feingold – Official Senate Bio

Fiengold ’08 Yahoo Group, Draft Russ website

Resume- three-term Democratic Senator from Wisconsin; the ‘Feingold’ of McCain-Feingold; Rhodes Scholar, 1977; Wisconsin State Senator, 1982-1992; lone vote in the Senate against the Patriot Act’s initial authorization; tied with Barbara Boxer as most ‘progressive’ Senator according to Americans for Democratic Action

Feingold is set to be the Howard Dean of 2008. He gets the ‘progressive’ wing excited, but he will be anathema to the general public and a surefire loser by a landslide in the general election, and the Democrats are hungry for the White House, after feeling like they were ‘robbed’ in the last two elections. Thus, while his own chances of success are dim, like Howard Dean, he will force himself into the debate and put the heat on the other Democrats. Indeed, he is already having an effect on the Democratic dynamic.

By calling for an end to the Iraq War by December 31st, 2006, Feingold effectively sent a signal that he is running in 2008. This move puts pressure on the other candidates to signal whether they will run left or right on Iraq. Left is looking very comfortable at the moment, but trying to ‘out-liberal’ your opponent is a risky tactic in American politics, one that often offers short-term glory in more media coverage and better fundraising, but long-term tragedy, as the rank-and-file come to view such a stance as ‘unelectable’.

Hillary will not be slayed from the left; if she goes down to defeat, it will be from an Evan Bayh or (my own pick at the moment for best shot at beating Clinton) a Mark Warner. If I were a Democratic strategist, I would tell my candidate to let Feingold have the Left; they can’t deliver an election, but they can sure kill a campaign.

CURRENT ODDS: 12-1

NOTE: Concurrent with this profile, I am moving Bayh and Warner up; both are positioned fairly well at the moment.