“Doubtless, the internicine warfare over the Miers nomination is taking its toll on all of us, and I think I am letting my disgust over the Miers reaction spill over.”

I know myself well enough to know that part of the reason I am getting increasingly angry with Bush and increasingly opposed to Miers’ confirmation is because this was entirely self inflicted. The toll we are taking on ourselves was 100% avoidable. It was stupid for Bush to do this, and I think that short term consequences be damned, it is in our interests, long term, to demonstrate to future Presidents that it is stupid to incite warfare among our own factions. It is the same reason I cannot ever support John McCain, even if he is good on the war and has been good on judges throughout his history and has been good on spending.

It’s odd that I find myself taking the centrist view so often, since I don’t think of myself that way…perhaps it is because I live in such a bastion of liberalism (odd for a Texan to say, but that’s Austin for you!), so compared to my friends and co-workers, I’m about as conservative as can be.

Still, your points have resonance, particular the parallel with the Democratic treatment of minority voters. Well said…

Great piece, and I agree with your three bolded items of emphasis. You have identified the most effective strategies to pursue.

However, I disagree with one part.

If you must oppose her on principle, well, I’m a big fan of principle…but if you’re opposing her to please the base, forget the base. The base will come around; we’ve got to make sure we hold the center.

With all due respect, I think this line comes from the fact that you are more of a centrist, and as such you think the key comes from appealing to folks like you.

But it simply is not true. But before you think I am doing the same thing, thinking it comes down to folks like me, let me continue my point.

Success won’t come from holding the center. It also won’t come from holding the base. We have to do both. Things are too evenly divided right now to choose one or the other.

It is a terrible mistake that the minority of Republicans, the moderates, tend to make, thinking that the base has nowhere to go and as such will come around. You may be right for the majority of ‘the base’, but that is not enough. There is a portion of the base which simply won’t turn out if it feels ignored, or will find somewhere else to go, consequences be damned. Ask George H. W. Bush. Ask Bob Dole.

And while those who are not in lockstep with the base might think this to be a mistake on the part of the base (an assessment that I agree with, actually, in a close call) it is not a slam-dunk obvious truism. Look, for example, at the black caucus within the Democratic party. They continue to monolithically support Democrats, and as such have been taken for granted by the Democrats. They have empowered the Democrats with their loyalty, but really have not empowered themselves much at all. Labor is starting to realize this; part of the reason for the recent schism in the AFL-CIO is because some labor leaders are starting to figure out that if they are perceived as having nowhere else to go, they are powerless.

Conservatives are an independent bunch. They are stubborn. They cannot be taken for granted. When the Republicans do, they lose.

We have to do both, and the sooner all factions within the Republican coalition come to grips with this, the better. The assumption by conservatives that the moderates will remain loyal is a poor one, but it is an equally poor assumption by moderates that conservatives will remain loyal. All factions need to have their core concerns addressed, lest the coalition fail. The mindset that “they have nowhere else to go, they will come around” is one which is a ticket for permanent minority status.

DeWine and Santorum are the only two who are in trouble, regarding Senators.

Santorum will vote with Bush on Meirs, DeWine will read the tea leaves.

Bill Press was on Scarborough last night, wondering what the dems were thinking. There is a strong chance, especially if she is as mindless as Frum would have us believe, she is more likely to vote with Thomas and Scalia. He sees it as more of a big loss for dems, than Bush.

The fight starts when the Ralph Neas comes out aginst her, as being pro-life. There will have to be five GOP Senators who openly oppose her, which is what the dems are waiting for. If she looks like she has the votes, the dems will have to move into action. If she lays an egg in the hearings, DeWiine can buck the Pres.

DeWine is in trouble for local reasons, and there is a more legitimate climate, that could be called ‘corruption; when considering Gov. Taft and that coin scandal, and signifciant job loss/unemployment. DeWine doesn’t have to worry as much about the President or Meirs, as he does the economic plight, and potential for backlash, or as shown in Hackett’s race, apathy.

If the base turns out, the dem message is irrelevant.

Tough to complain about a War for Oil, and then trying to explain why you don’t want to take steps to address our current and future needs. This is going to kill reps in red states, who will have to explain why they are voting as they are told. Pelosi is in love with her power to ride herd on the other reps, but if you are the minority party, you never get to lead your herd to water. If they won…but they didn’t. She picked a fight that she and EVERY DEM, who voted for it, look foolish.

Hat tip to Tom DeLay, getting two moderates to change thier vote. The republicans had to give on some of what they wanted to their own party. I have mixed feelings on that, but it demonstrates a party that is willing to change their position because it is not tied to the whims of its leaders.

The DeLay indictment is drawing a lot of attention, but this isn’t great news for the dems. Particlularly, if there is not a successful conviction-any other outcome can be spun as an over-zealous prosecution. Hutchison will be used to augment this case. Sorry media matters, Earle may have indicted dems as well, but they weren’t ‘name’ dems.

Yes, the elections are 13 months away, but as I think about the dynamic a pro-Bush polling trend over the next weeks will create, I conclude that if he tops 50 by Nov. 1 will any Republicans going up for re-election feel comfortable voting against Miers?

The Democracy poll(skewed left) had a generic congressional poll before the election of 2004:Results-43-R, 48-D.

At the end of Oct 05-It’s 38-R 48-D.
http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html

The recent move to the left by the dems, has frozen them out. They have a small group of people to draw from, who are willing to associate with Dean/Pelosi/Reid. The dems are in terrible shape, searching for a national identity, but in reaching out to the anti-war left, they limit their base.

The Republicans are not bound by any commitment. As much as the dems would like to give Frist/DeLay as the face of the party, less than 17% of the population can tell you who they are.

A ‘fresh’ Republican can still run ‘against’ his party, with-”Send me to DC to stop the spending” message. Looking at the GOP senators and reps who have kept their ‘heads down’, they can still play either side. The Pelosi/Reid/Dean machine in promoting themselves, has done themselves incredible damage to their party. The public knows who they are, just tie your local dem to them. If they fight the association, they will be spending half their message to disascociate form these clowns. (Funny how they are trying to make Frist and DeLay brands names, but winding up fetting motre face time…)

Look at the Hackett race-He got only 5000 more votes in his Ohio run, than the dem in the 2002 race(an off year).

Looking at the results of the

Looking at the zogby , poll, (its all I have right now, and don’t have a lot of faith in it) but, here goes.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

Surprise?
Florida-Harris is within 4 pts, and the incumbent has only a 48%. I’ve seen Harris, and she has more than a good chance. Florida is heavily Bush Country. (In the 2002 Governor’s election Zogby had it to close to call, Bush won by Double digits…)

Maryland-Steele will likely nullify the African/American vote. Zogby has it tied.

Kean will win NJ on his name.

DeWine will win/retain in Ohio.

Losses?
Santorum. He is definitely not out. Strong support from Lynn Swann would help. Troop draw down-vringing Nationalk dems out to declare “Iraq is lost, in the face of returning vets is going to be a factor.”

GOP can still raise money. The dems can’t. They are stuck hoping for the wind at their back from Soros and Moveon. 2000 showed the success that breeds. The dems don’t have the money locally. The splitting of the Unions, also palys strongly to Santorum. He’s losing because he is unpopular, not because of his opponents stand.

GOP, as it stand right now, looks to pick up two to three seats.

Worth looking at: Wisconsin and possibly Minnesota.

The dems are still vulnerable, very vulnerable. Without a national leader who can come in and endorse…