Rudy needs to come in third in Iowa (though better than that would be nice) and first or a *close* second in NH, and at least second or a tied third in SC. Anything less than that will probably end it.

If he does respectably but not great in SC, IMHO, he’s made it through to the next round. He presumably wins big-state (blue-state) primaries …

The X factor in all of this, obviously, is McCain. Those two need to sit down together sometime after the 06 elections and realistically assess which one of them has a better chance, and the other needs to stand down.

Of course, these are politicians we’re talking about, i.e. egos with legs, so this might be unrealistic.

Rudy can get votes that are not easy to categorize due to intangibles. I lean way right, but I can’t help but like Rudy and depending on who else is on the ballot, I might vote for him. I’m not counting on the race lasting until California, but you never know.

Yup. Rudy needs to make McCain an offer he can’t refuse.

There are many Republicans and many Democrats who could get elected if they could get nominated. McCain almost certainly would win a general election if he was nominated, but that’s not going to happen.

McCain will have an early advantage because there will be a whole boatload of Republicans running to the right splitting votes. He also has Lindsey Graham to help him in South Carolina. However, once a center-right Republican emerges, after the pretenders have abandoned their campaigns, McCain won’t win another primary. There are a number of center-right Republicans who will do very well in the general election.

Giuliani could make the Republican nomination much more interesting. If McCain and Giuliani both run, the lesser right and center-right Republicans may stay in the race longer than if there was just one moderate running causing the nomination to be in doubt much longer as well. If McCain doesn’t run, Giuliani has a chance to move more to the right and get the nomination. However, I can’t imagine McCain not running.

The Democrat obstacle course will be much more difficult. There has not been a Democrat to get more than 50% in the general election since Jimmy Carter. Al Gore got 50% running un-apposed as a centrist. The Democrat who will be nominated in 2008 must run to the left in the primaries and then back to the right in the general election. There is no trend in America that would indicate a candidate could get elected with a serpentine strategy unless the Republican candidate is Bob Dole or a facsimile thereof.

The 2006 election won’t telegraph a winner either. If the Democrats can’t take the house in 2006, it is not likely they can take the Executive in 2008. If the Democrats do take the house in 2006, the Republican Presidential candidate will have another villain to run against. My money is on the Republican regardless of who is nominated and I am almost certain it will not be John McCain.

Life and death are equally humorous, if you can laugh at both.

Ginsburg’s chemo was 5 years ago. She was dxd in 99. If she looks old, chemo does that.

But now we’ve got the leftists in the party cracking the whip about the war. She may wind up in the unenviable position of choosing a perceived moderate and then facing some Naderish challenge from the left that’s just enough to sink her, or choosing a perceived lefty to forestall such a challenge, but then worrying all those people who have been led to believe she’s a middle-of-the-roader at heart.

I’ve also come to believe Giuliani and McCain are probably the only two Republicans who can win in 2008, or at least win comfortably enough that I don’t have to stay up to the wee hours on election night. I know this irks some conservatives, and for legitimate reasons. But I think that just as the left has slowly been learning that the country is more conservative than they care to admit, the right needs to learn that it’s not quite that conservative.

She showed me the stitches, my vision has never recovered.