Informed Speculation

Love him or hate him, it seems almost beyond argument that Ariel Sharon is the most consequential Israeli leader since – well, since Chaim Weizmann. Known as the hardest of hardliners and a forceful proponent of Israeli settlements, he has come closer than any other to bringing peace through a combination of disengagement (dismantling many of the precious settlements and building a huge security barrier) and tough retaliation to terrorist attacks.

Now, Sharon has dealt the world another shock by taking the almost unprecedented step of leaving his own party, the very party he helped found and bring to prominence, over its unwillingness to endorse his fruitful policies. Says the UK’s Telegraph:

A sitting prime minister took leave of the party he helped to found in an attempt to create a rival that would capture the centre ground. Mr Sharon forced the withdrawal from Gaza and four West Bank settlements through the Knesset against the will of Likud and has concluded that he would be better off without it in seeking to consolidate the country’s borders along readily defensible lines. Israel has seen nothing like it in its 57 years as a modern state. Indeed, no parallel in any part of the world comes to mind.

Sometimes history provides the right man for the moment. With the death of the intransigent Yasser Arafat, Sharon is in a strong position to bring real change to the region. The Telegraph continues:

If Mr Sharon is successful, the Palestinians can, by and large, expect more of the same. That means no immediate start on final status negotiations but rather further disengagement, underwritten by Washington and preferably negotiated with Mahmoud Abbas. At any rate, with elections to a Palestinian parliament due in January and a likely hiatus after the Knesset poll in March, while coalition bargaining proceeds, peace talks look set to mark time for the best part of six months. And the prospects for their resumption thereafter will depend on how many votes Hamas wins in the New Year.

Mr Sharon has become a mighty mould-breaker, a champion of settlements who eventually concluded that some were not worth the candle, a Likud stalwart who finally abandoned a party which was cramping his style. He is poised to capture the centre ground on a secular, liberal platform which accepts the “road map” to a Palestinian state while recognising the weakness of Mr Abbas and the threat posed to Israel by the gunmen and bombers of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades. His is a realistic assessment of the situation and prevailing mood of the Israeli public. We wish him well.

Well said…