Informed Speculation

…is on ample display here in this cheery post from Juan Cole:

It is not actually a positive sign for the Americans that Sunni Arabs came out to vote in order to get rid of them, to see if they couldn’t get rid of the current pro-American government, to underline that the armed struggle will continue, and to prove that Sunni Arabs (20% of so of the population) are a majority of the country! The American faith that if people go to the polls it means they won’t also be blowing things up is badly misplaced.

Silly me, I thought they were voting for candidates to represent them – I didn’t realize all those things Cole listed were actually on the ballot. That must have been one hard-to-read mother…

Cole’s proof of these assertions is a couple of people in Fallujah quoted at random, so you know it’s rock solid.

Just for grins, though…let’s assume Cole is telling the truth when he says that a big Sunni turnout is bad news. Well, he is a professor, after all, so that’s that, and a good evening to you all…but hold on!

Here’s Juan Cole one year ago, saying just the opposite!:

…[I]f Shi’ite turnout is very big and Sunni Arab turnout low, it will create a tyranny of the Shi’ite majority, a special problem when parliament turns to constitution-making.

…[I]ntimidation is likely to be greater in the Sunni Arab heartland than in the Shi’ite south or Kurdish north. Therefore, the differential rate of intimidation could keep Sunni Arabs away from the polls in greater numbers than the other major ethnic groups, producing that tyranny of the Shi’ite majority of which I warned.

…Big Kurdish and Shi’ite turnouts and a low Sunni Arab turnout would not in fact be good news.

Oh, dear me, now I’m all confused!

Let’s see, in January, Sunni turnout was low, and that was bad, because it meant the ‘tyranny of the majority’. Now, in December, Sunni turnout was high, and that’s bad, too, because it means Sunnis are trying to prove how much they support the insurgents by voting in democratic elections.

Why, if Professor Cole wasn’t such a distinguished scholar, I’d accuse him of intellectual dishonesty…it might even seem like he was willing to adopt any position temporarily as long as it confirmed the thesis that the U.S. is the bad guy…but that can’t be right…

Oh, well…Professor Juan, will you tell us a bedtime story? How about the one where Osama bin Laden attacked the U.S. in response to an event that took place months later? That’s one of my favorite fairy tales…

UPDATE 9:45 a.m.: My thanks to the great Tim Blair for the link…