Informed Speculation

…for everything to gain. Okay, it makes a better song lyric the other way around, but as 2005 comes to a close, it’s worth remembering the giant steps taken towards freedom in some unlikely locales. Joshua Muravchik does just that in the LA Times as he takes a look at the latest yearly report from Freedom House:

This year, however, more countries than usual changed category. Eight countries plus the Palestinian Authority, not yet officially a country, moved up — either from “not free” to “partly free” or from “partly free” to “free.” Four countries moved down. In all, this made it a good year for freedom.

But here’s the really interesting part. Of the nine countries that improved their ratings, no fewer than six are Muslim countries. Indonesia moved from “partly free” to “free,” while Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Mauritania and the Palestinian Authority moved from “not free” to “partly free.” Of the four countries that became less free in 2005, none was a Muslim country.

…In 2001, Freedom House first highlighted this remarkable disparity. Of the 47 countries that had Muslim majorities, only one was “free,” 18 were “partly free” and 28 were “not free.” Among the non-Muslim countries, the proportions were nearly the opposite: 85 were “free,” 40 “partly free” and only 20 “not free.” Worse, the Muslim world was growing more repressive, not more free.

Some of the credit for reversing this belongs to President Bush’s strategy of promoting freedom and democracy, including by means of war in Iraq. Saad Edin Ibrahim, the dean of Egyptian dissidents and an opponent of the war in Iraq, said recently that it had “unfrozen the Middle East just as Napoleon’s 1798 expedition did.”

There is still plenty to debate about the war. And success in Iraq remains far from assured. Despite progress, Freedom House still counts Iraq as “not free” as of the end of November.

On the other hand, we must not allow our divisions over Iraq to blind us to the trend toward freedom. We ought to notice it, applaud it and do everything we can to encourage it further.

I second that emotion…