Speaking of Polls…
… – and we have been, haven’t we? – Chris Cillizza’s WaPo blog shows why, in his words, “polling is equal parts science and art”. Two pollsters, two party affiliations, same results, different interpretations. Read it and enlighten yourself, grasshopper…
A far more substantive poll is on the verge of being pretty much tossed, according to the latest out of Iraq, brought to us by Iraq the Model’s Mohammed:
When asked about the shape of the new government, [Former Prime Minister] Allawi answered “there are two options, one is to have a government formed according to the results of the elections but in this case the winners must respect and protect the minorities in a way that allows the minority to practice its role as an opposition. The second option is that we form a government based on accordance and then, the Iraqi list will demand a state of balance in the distribution of posts among the lists.
Well, this is certainly a confusing turn of events. Would a government formed by agreement between the parties involved be more likely to bring peace? Probably…but would it have a legal foundation? Questions abound…
UPDATE 6:59 p.m.: An international group has agreed to review the election results:
The presence of two Arab experts on the International Mission for Iraqi Elections team could go far in helping to convince Iraqis that the review of the vote will be fair. The team will also consist of a Canadian and a European.
The independent group said it helped monitor the elections in Baghdad and was “assisted by monitors from countries of the European Union working under IMIE’s umbrella.”
The team will travel to Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi election commission — a pointed [sic] noted by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
“The Electoral Commission has once again demonstrated its commitment to fair and credible elections that meet international standards,” Rice said in a statement welcoming the invitation to the independent team.
Right not, peace is more important than legality (incedentally, it would still be more legitimate than the Ba’athist regime). The Iraqis need time to form factions, coalitions, parties. That’s what the period from this election to the next one will allow. Then, two main opposing groups will be able hash out the problems of Iraq. Iraq’s biggest problem right not is that there are no major political parties except for the UIA. Once a credible opposition develops, the mechanisms of the Westminister system will snap into effect. This is what I truly believe. As much as we in America whine about it, the party system will be the savior of Iraqi democracy, and it will also be a moderating influence. You don’t need to worry about coups or revolts when all you have to do to get a new government is vote it into power.