McCain By Default?
That seems to be the conclusion of Larry Sabato, who sizes up the 2008 GOP nomination and finds everyone lacking, but McCain lacking less:
Underlying the McCain revival is a growing belief by senior Republicans that a candidate in the Bush mold will be unable to win the elusive “third term” for the GOP. The most reliable and powerful campaign theme in all of American history is, “It’s Time for a Change.” After two terms of George W. Bush, the public is likely to want a change of some sort, providing it’s not too drastic. A candidate who looks and sounds like Bush will be at a significant disadvantage, goes this line of thinking. Therefore, say the GOP’s high pooh-bahs, why not give the electorate a refreshing change via the Republican nomination? There may be no more convincing rationale for McCain’s nomination, but this assumes that Bush remains unpopular and that electability trumps ideology. The latter is never a sure bet with party activists, who usually hold to principle even with the prospect of defeat.
The ideological candidate of choice, of course, continues to be George Allen, but I confess that the prospect of an Allen nomination leaves me cold at the moment. Insiders like him, but why should I? He’ll need to come up with a good ‘story’ for his candidacy.
Curiously, Sabato seems to feel the presumptive favorite, Rudy Giuliani, is not running:
Some of the arguably best Republican candidates aren’t running, including former Big Apple Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, and Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Could one or more reconsider? Could a hero or two from the 2006 elections emerge and take the party by storm? All possible, but not bloody likely.
Not bloody likely? Curious choice of words…Jeb is probably out, and Condi doubtful (Jay Cost tells us why here), but Rudy G. can bring instant excitement to the race, and to my knowledge, has not ruled out the run (meaning he is leaning towards going). If Sabato knows otherwise, I wish he would have shared with the rest of us…
Maybe he decided to leave Giuliani out because it messed up his McCain thesis?
I read occasional whispers on the Internet saying that Rudy won’t run, either because he’s making too good a living with his consulting practice or because he’s afraid his messy personal life will come back to haunt him. I suppose both things are possible, but we shouldn’t forget one very important thing. To look around a nation of nearly 300 million people and decide you’re the best candidate to lead them all, you need a heaping pile of chutzpah, and Giuliani’s got that in spades. His ambition and ego have their good and bad points, but they combine to make a guy who I don’t picture slinking off into history as a well-paid public speaker. How does the guy who never shied from a fight before suddenly just give up without a pop because some pundits say he can’t turn his good poll numbers into victory?
That said, if Giuliani doesn’t run, McCain sure looks inevitable, but it was just two years ago we were all accepting the inevitability of the Howard Dean nomination.
I’d be nervous that something like a Allen candidacy would repeat all the inherent mistakes of the Kerry campaign; he’d be a compromise candidate that nobody would hate but nobody would run through walls for either.
Even I like McCain. He is so much more moderate and reasonable than a lot of the newer Republicans who have popped up. I also love the fact that he has considerable military service and was a POW.
Rudy can’t fail, oh, no….
I don’t know. I’m starting to get the feeling that Bush is grooming Condi to be his successor. I can’t see any way that he would leave the White House without naming an heir, and it sure won’t be Cheney. I predicted in 2004 that we would see Cheney out and Rice in by the time Bush leaves office. I see no reason to take that prediction back and I think it’s at least fairly likely that Rice will be the establishment candidate and McCain the reform candidate in 2008.
Rice is so ugly.
[...] Larry Sabato, who, as you may recall, is of the opinion that John McCain will probably be the Republican nominee by default, now turns his eye on the Democrats: The most compelling element of the 2008 contest for the Democrats, in the Crystal Ball’s view, will be their burning desire to end GOP control of the White House. George W. Bush’s reign will have extended over eight years, but to Democrats, who deeply despise this President, it has already seemed like an eternity. Hatred of a President among party activists can produce wise or unwise outcomes. Democratic true believers may incorrectly think that their fellow citizens fully share their opinion of Bush and will inevitably elect the person they choose as their nominee in order to punish the Republicans for Bush’s multitudinous sins. Or Democrats may allow reason to triumph over emotion by picking a nominee who does not fulfill all their liberal fantasies but has a good chance of winning. [...]