Cost Makes His Prediction
Jay Cost has part II of his look at the 2006 House race up, and it’s got his prediction. First, a word on methodology:
…[T]he “Tufte/Jacobson theory” is starting point I have chosen. It argues that we can predict the outcome of a congressional election based upon three factors: exposure, presidential job approval and changes in real disposable income per capita (RDI/cap). It is time to supply the details, supplement the theory with some extra concerns, and make a prediction for 2006.
And now, the prediction…
I predict you need to click on that link and read the article. Who am I to steal Jay’s thunder?…
A+ for Jay Cost and Mark for pointing this out.
Excellent analysis. But the global factors are just the starting point for the actual races. I’d love to see a more thorough analysis of the twenty open seats, and the seventeen Kerry-district Republicans and forty-one Bush-district Democrats. The quality of candidates we have in those races, and how well they match their districts and opponents, can make a big difference.