Sully: Rudy G. Is Looking Strong – Very Strong
Okay, we like to have our fun with Andrew Sullivan – he’s famous for political mood swings, and given to overblown pronouncements at times – but he’s also a pretty good writer and political observer, and this column in the London Times is one of the better I have yet seen on the probable candidacy of Rudy Giuliani.
Sullivan notes the steps Rudy is taking to ingratiate himself with evangelicals, then makes an observation that is quite insightful:
…[T]he other main theme [the first being the War on Terror] emerging in American politics is competent management. Last week the House Republicans issued a blistering report on the government’s response to Hurricane Katrina. Many conservatives are well aware the Bush administration has been nothing short of a fiscal catastrophe. There is a hunger for someone who knows how to manage and get government to actually work, someone who can pull the levers of administrative power to make things happen and someone who knows how to balance a budget.
Giuliani is known for two things: turning a chaotic New York City into a bourgeois paradise; and for sterling leadership in an existential security crisis, 9/11. His CV is almost designed for this moment.
Sully ends strong:
[H]e squares the Republican circles in ways nobody else can. He’s inclusive but respectful of religion, a great manager and executive while also a powerful speaker and, above all, a man who stood up to terror in a way seared into the national — and even global — consciousness.
If I were advising him I’d urge him to pick a running mate who possesses major foreign policy experience to offset his lack of expertise. A Giuliani-Rice ticket? It’s what Democratic nightmares are made of.
Indeed…
A pair I’m sure had crossed my mind, but is now sounding very appealing. Still not sure if G. is conservative enough morally for me though.
if Rs go moderate this time, which is probable, I bet McCain beats Giuliani. Rudy is good, but has been a bit too below the radar. Also, Mccain is pro-life, has always been a spending hawk, and is just as pro defense as Rudy.
McCain is likely the choice.
The only other major competitor at this stage is Allen, who is too much like circa 2000 Bush. He will finish 3rd.
Pataki, Frist, Brownback are the pointless also-rans. oh and the Mass Gov. who’s name i cant remember.
http://americansforfreedom.blogspot.com
I’m still pulling for Rudy. That way I can keep wearing my W: The President t-shirt for a few more years.
I am the biggest Rudy guy there is. If I could by magical powers personally chose who would be next POTUS, Rudy would be sitting in the WH come 1-2009.
But I have had to face the facts lately, and they all point to Rudy not running in 2008 I’m sad to say.
Candidates are snapping up the best and brightest of the Republican campaign strategists quickly. McCain got McKinnon and Murphy very early and lately snapped up mega-Bush fundraiser Tom Loeffler.
George Allen’s early coup was to sign on Dick Waddhams, who many have touted as the next Karl Rove. Ed Gillespie recently signed on with Allen as well which is no small catch either.
Even George Pataki has nabbed Walter Ganzi Jr. who was one of Bush I’s major money men.
It’s almost too late already for Rudy to make a run for it. If he waits any longer, anyone of any importance will be gone.
Which makes me think that Rudy is really running for Veep. He may have come to the conclusion that he doesn’t have the time to “conservatize” himself in time for a 2008 run.
His plan may be to follow in the footsteps of Bush I. Serve as Veep in a conservative administration, and then come out as a social conservative when it’s his time to run.
It’s pretty well known that McCain is scared of a Rudy candidacy, seeing him as the biggest threat to the GOP nom. Rudy might have the leverage to make a deal with McCain: You assure me that you will pick me as your Veep and I will not run. There may even be a further stipulation that Rudy would in turn then chose Lindsey Graham as his Veep when the time comes (Graham is McCain’s first choice for Veep.)
Who really knows besides a few key people what deals have been made or not made; but it is always fun to speculate.
Hey, speculation is what we’re all about…thanks for the thoughts, good points on the money men…
Thanks Mark! I love your blog.
Can anyone deny the electoral bloodbath that would ensue in a McCain/Giuliani Superticket? My gosh! The question might be how far over 400 they would go in terms of the Electoral College, not IF they would break 400.
Of course I like Rudy, and he’s my main hope here – but if that combo comes to fruition, it will be akin to watching Bambi vs. Godzilla in the general election (if Hill-Bot runs).
No way the Dems counter that ticket – forgettaboutit.
As much as I’d like to argue with you, Bij, you might be right. I think it’s a good idea for Giuliani not to come on too strong for too long – I like him a lot, but he’s admittedly rough around the edges in a way that doesn’t always wear well, particularly outside New York. So in that sense, keeping his campaigning to under-the-radar speeches may not be such a bad idea. But you can’t ignore the money men, and if I was 90 percent sure he was running a few months back, I’m down to about 60 or 70 percent sure now.
It’s a little difficult for me to picture Giuliani running for veep; he’ll be 64 in 2008, so he’s not like John Edwards thinking that he’s got lots of time to position himself, win or lose. (Of course, McCain will be 72 in 2008, so we may be facing the geezer brigade no matter what.) But even more than age, Giuliani doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would deliberately settle for No. 2. I suspect he’ll either decide he has a shot at the big prize and run, or decide he doesn’t and stick to making big bucks with speeches and consulting work.
But I definitely agree the two could be an electoral powerhouse. It would be nice to have an election night again where I was able to start relaxing around 8 p.m., not staying up to all hours.
A McCain/Giuliani ticket sounds very plausible. It would be a decisive victory for the Republicans.
Though I can only see McCain having a single term as President before handing the reigns over to Rudy (McCain will be 74 in 2012). Hence Rudy will only be 68 if McCain offers him a deal.