Nader barely beat Badnarik (of the Libertarians) for third place (I think his percentage was somewhere closer to 1% or less, actually). Ralph reached the pinnacle of his political career in 2000. Add in the fact that he’s in his late 70s (I think?), and hasn’t even made a peep anywhere since 2004, and I don’t think that adds up to another presidential run.

I think their “Contract with America,” which is again due out in a few weeks, will not have any positive programs. As they can’t come to agreement on what they should stand for, their best move right now is to maximize party unity by being negative. If this doesn’t work in 06, they’ll have enough time to change their track for 08. But, if they win this November, don’t expect any changes in the 08 campaign.

Remember that in 2000 the “wrong track” polling number was not good for President Bush, but he won anyway. He won because a majority of voters obviously believed that Democrats would put us on a “worse track.”

I think that may be enough to carry the Democrats over the top, as the nation does go through occasional bouts of “throw the rascals out,” and that’s probably a healthy thing for a democracy. But it’s not all that useful a slogan once you’ve been elected and now you’re the rascal. What would the Democrats do about Iraq? Iran? Health care? Social Security? Trade policies? Immigration? It’s not really clear, because the Democrats are terribly divided themselves on those issues. That’s why you have Hillary Clinton triangulating herself all over the place.