An Update On That Straw Poll
Well, we’ve always known Decision ’08ers are a breed apart – but a poll like this really shows it! Of the 55 votes the GOPBloggers straw poll has received from this website to this point, Rudy G. is the most favorably looked-upon candidate by a good margin, with McCain second, and Huckabee, Romney, and Allen also net positives.
Bill Frist is the least wanted candidate, followed closely by Chuck Hagel, and somewhat surprisingly, George Pataki (I didn’t expect him to do well, I was just a little surprised at how poorly he fared).
Compare with the blogosphere as a whole, though – with 2252 votes cast, George Allen has a narrow lead over Rudy, and only Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrinch (though just barely) merit net positives. Chuck Hagel and Pataki lead the negatives, but not far behind at third most negative is…John McCain.
What does it mean? Well, it’s not surprising that Giuliani scores well both places – but the McCain result shows me several things. One, the conservative blogosphere is FAR more conservative than my own readership, taken as a whole, and the general public. Two, McCain still has a lot of work to do (though I’m sure he’s well aware of that). Three, if the activists have their way, we will lose this election.
To choose between Rudy G. and McCain is to choose between two men who have very real chances at the presidency; to choose George Allen, unless I completely miss the mark, is as good as conceding defeat in 2008…
I would be hesitant to go as far as that on Allen. He certainly is not a guaranteed win the way Giuliani or McCain are, but he isn’t a necessary loss either. An Allen nomination would put the election in the hands of the Democrats. If they picked Hillary, we’d still win. If they picked Warner, we’d be in serious shape, not least because it would no longer be clear that Allen could even win his home state.
Bottom line: if we write off McCain, we shoot ourselves in the foot. That doesn’t mean we’ll lost, but we’ll sure be trying.
Yes, I think you put it better there – it would be in the hands of the Democrats…
I would love to see McCain (or Rudy) in the White House. I am not at all sure that either one could win if nominated. Let us not forget that it was the social-conservative base turing out in unprecendented numbers that pushed GWB over the top in a very narrow contest. A moderate Republican has no hope of energizing these people to such an extent. I am by no means certain that either of them could bring in enough Democratic moderates to counter the Left’s grass-roots efforts. There may well be a better chance of winning the election for an Allen.
djg – Not that I have any evidence, but I just don’t believe the conservative base really did all that much in 2004. I’d really love to see someone do a study on this.
I would love to see Chuck Hagel win the 2008 election. I am curious as to why so many people who voted in this saw him as negative. Can anyone enlighten me?
Any of the serious candidates (Rudy, McCain, Allen, Romney, Rice) have at minimum a 50/50 chance against Billary.
It’s when you get into the Gingrich’s, Brownbacks, and Tancredo’s that we are conceding defeat to her.
Charlie, I can make a guess, but it’s only a guess – many, though not all, of my regular readers are big supporters of the Iraq War, as I am myself – Hagel’s stance here has probably cost him amont this blog’s readership.
Again, only a guess, and not a slam on your candidate…
Ryan,
The study has been done. RCP has an article (I don’t have the time to find the link) that shows how this election had the highest turnout since 1968, with Democrats receiving 3 million more votes than in 2000, and the difference for the GOP side being made up exclusively from the conservative base.
I am a rock ribbed conservative from AZ. And I am really looking forward to supporting Giuliani for president. McCain just not have the temperament to be president . I disagree with many of Giuliani’s p[policies but he has the one most important thing. The L-E-A-D-E-R-S-H-I-P ability to be Pres indent.
An ancillary benefit would be the ability to have a fifty state sweep. We need to get governing majorities in the Senate i.e. more than 62-65 Republicans so we can take back the judiciary, reform the tax and Social Security systems, enable energy exploration, and enact the Conservative agenda.
Please show me any possibility of assembling a Democrat win with the possible loss of NYC and NY States electoral votes.
There is simply no way…