Zarqawi will fail in his mission to foment civil war in Iraq. There are two fundamental reasons for such a failure. First, the politicians who ascended into their position of power did so on the back of the ballot box and not on the barrel of a gun. Secondly, none of the three major factional groups, the Shiites, the Sunnis, and the Kurds could hold power by appealing to the militias that support them. As none of the latter singly or in combination of two is strong enough to defeat the others or other. Hence, an appeal by any of the factional groups to the militias that support them, would lead to a prolonged civil war with all its uncertitudes about which faction will be the winner.

Because of this uncertainty about the outcome of a civil war, during which many of the present politicians that are now at the threshold of government would lose their position, it’s most unlikely that they would be so foolish as to let go the bird in their hand for the two in the bush.

Thus, there is a high probability that the Shiites, the Sunnis, and the Kurds, will form a government of national unity that will prevent a civil war. The auspices for the latter are very favorable, as the agreement of the three groups, two days ago, about the constituent members of the National Security Council has shown.

Go to my blog for more:
http://congeorgekotzabasis.blogspot.com