Informed Speculation

Though the conventional wisdom is the Republican base will not be motivated in 2006 because of an unpopular war and president, there are plenty of factors that should put a fire under us. One is the anticipation of the impeachment proceedings the Democrats would no doubt attempt with a congressional majority, and George Will supplies another by looking at a close Senate race in Ohio:

[Rep. Sherrod] Brown is a harbinger of a momentous, and ominous, aspect of the 2008 presidential election: For the first time in living memory, one of the major parties — Brown’s — will be essentially hostile to free trade, the foundation of today’s prosperity. The Democratic Party’s protectionism operates under the dissimulating label of “fair trade.”

A serious student of trade policy, Brown notes that the trade deficit for all of 1992 was $39 billion, but was $724 billion last year and $68 billion just for January 2006. He wants U.S. trade policy to force “stronger labor and environmental standards” in less-developed nations. He says the point is to “bring up their living standards.” Oh, please. The primary point is to reduce the competitive advantages of nations with lower labor costs and lighter environmental regulations — nations that many Ohioans believe have caused their state to lose 222,800 manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years.

DeWine, one of only four senators who supported John McCain in 2000, is a moderate conservative with an independent streak — for example, he has repeatedly voted against drilling in ANWR. This may be enough to annoy some conservatives without being sufficient to distance him from the state Republican shambles. We shall find out late on Election Night when, as usual, the nation will be watching Ohio.

As an Economics graduate and a conservative, I put free trade very high on my priority list, but it’s a simple, unassailable proposition that lies behind it: a rising tide lifts all boats. We should – and must – be able to make that message. The facts and the logic are on our side…