Comments on: The Decline In Casualties http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:53:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Fred http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/comment-page-1/#comment-15459 Fred Thu, 06 Apr 2006 20:58:45 +0000 http://decision08.net/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/#comment-15459 Going dormant for an insurgency dependent on foreign support has its own downside risks. How exactly will they draw volunteers to Iraq? The slogan "Come hide quietly with us," hardly sounds inviting to someone looking to be a martyr. Going dormant for an insurgency dependent on foreign support has its own downside risks. How exactly will they draw volunteers to Iraq? The slogan “Come hide quietly with us,” hardly sounds inviting to someone looking to be a martyr.

]]> By: megapotamus http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/comment-page-1/#comment-15454 megapotamus Thu, 06 Apr 2006 19:58:10 +0000 http://decision08.net/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/#comment-15454 dmac, you're right there. It's easy to say; this is too that... that has not enough of this.... Compared to what? Historical analysis reveals the Iraq front to have the LOWEST casualty rate of any comparable American deployment ('cept maybe Afghanistan) and by "comparable" I mean even much more modest in terms of resources committed and political goals, both realized and potential. Lately I've been reading up on the Civil War, it's immediate predeceding events and our own Revolution. By any standard barring the one that presumes no good has, will, or CAN come of our Iraqi adventure the thing is a raging success to date. My crystal ball is on the fritz so I'm leaving things in Dub's paws. He's gotten us this far... dmac, you’re right there. It’s easy to say; this is too that… that has not enough of this…. Compared to what? Historical analysis reveals the Iraq front to have the LOWEST casualty rate of any comparable American deployment (‘cept maybe Afghanistan) and by “comparable” I mean even much more modest in terms of resources committed and political goals, both realized and potential. Lately I’ve been reading up on the Civil War, it’s immediate predeceding events and our own Revolution. By any standard barring the one that presumes no good has, will, or CAN come of our Iraqi adventure the thing is a raging success to date. My crystal ball is on the fritz so I’m leaving things in Dub’s paws. He’s gotten us this far…

]]> By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/comment-page-1/#comment-15435 Mark Thu, 06 Apr 2006 15:08:10 +0000 http://decision08.net/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/#comment-15435 Chris, good link - I'll update the post... Chris, good link – I’ll update the post…

]]> By: dmac http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/comment-page-1/#comment-15433 dmac Thu, 06 Apr 2006 15:05:21 +0000 http://decision08.net/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/#comment-15433 "It's not happening fast enough." Fair question, but how does one answer effectively if we have no blueprint to go on here? Does anyone have another recent example of where an occupying military force trains a domestic replacement army to eventually take their place? And the example must not include just a police force, but a large -scale army as well? I can't think of a relevant example here - if anyone has one, I'm all ears. “It’s not happening fast enough.” Fair question, but how does one answer effectively if we have no blueprint to go on here? Does anyone have another recent example of where an occupying military force trains a domestic replacement army to eventually take their place? And the example must not include just a police force, but a large -scale army as well?

I can’t think of a relevant example here – if anyone has one, I’m all ears.

]]> By: too many steves http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/comment-page-1/#comment-15430 too many steves Thu, 06 Apr 2006 14:18:11 +0000 http://decision08.net/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/#comment-15430 The insurgents have gone dormant. They understand that coaxing us out by temporarily standing down will be more effective and expedient then trying to drive us out. They see that their previous activity has driven support for the US presence in Iraq to all time lows, only to also see no diminution of the President's commitment to the task. The risk they take by going dormant is that those that replace our forces, when we leave, are competent to do the job of maintaining security. So our deadline for leaving is not a date certain but when certain conditions have been met. I think Fargus has it right: the conditions of our leaving depend on the proper and timely training of the Iraqi Army. This is not happening fast enough - but I'm not qualified to judge whether it is happening as fast as it can effectively be done. To build a house you need excavators, foundation pourers, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, finish workers - but you can't put them all on the job site on the first day in the hopes that the house will be completed in less time. The insurgents have gone dormant. They understand that coaxing us out by temporarily standing down will be more effective and expedient then trying to drive us out. They see that their previous activity has driven support for the US presence in Iraq to all time lows, only to also see no diminution of the President’s commitment to the task. The risk they take by going dormant is that those that replace our forces, when we leave, are competent to do the job of maintaining security.

So our deadline for leaving is not a date certain but when certain conditions have been met. I think Fargus has it right: the conditions of our leaving depend on the proper and timely training of the Iraqi Army. This is not happening fast enough – but I’m not qualified to judge whether it is happening as fast as it can effectively be done. To build a house you need excavators, foundation pourers, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, finish workers – but you can’t put them all on the job site on the first day in the hopes that the house will be completed in less time.

]]> By: Chris J. Breisch http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/comment-page-1/#comment-15428 Chris J. Breisch Thu, 06 Apr 2006 14:00:30 +0000 http://decision08.net/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/#comment-15428 Please check <a href="http://www.myelectionanalysis.com/?p=875" rel="nofollow">here</a> for some interesting casualty #'s. Please check here for some interesting casualty #’s.

]]> By: Fargus http://informedspeculation.com/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/comment-page-1/#comment-15424 Fargus Thu, 06 Apr 2006 13:01:10 +0000 http://decision08.net/2006/04/06/the-decline-in-casualties/#comment-15424 If we're going to train their army, they need to be trained. That's not happening nearly fast enough, clearly. And if we're going to encourage them to get on the path to self-governance, we need to not send in Condi Rice and Jack Straw to chide them, because it <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/06/world/middleeast/06iraq.html?_r=1&oref=slogin" rel="nofollow"> is just going to make them mad.</a> If we’re going to train their army, they need to be trained. That’s not happening nearly fast enough, clearly. And if we’re going to encourage them to get on the path to self-governance, we need to not send in Condi Rice and Jack Straw to chide them, because it is just going to make them mad.

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