I think Barone [earlier post and link] has it right. Most Republican voters are very tired of the Republicans in Congress. Opinion polls may accurately measure the disgust of Republican voters now, but these opinion polls can’t measure expected results of an election in November because most Republican voters should still vote against the Democrat challengers and most Democrat voters should still vote against the Republican challengers.

Some voters will stay home and some voters will switch, but in contested districts, most voters will still vote for the same party they have been voting for since 1994. There are no positions that either party has taken to change the dynamics.

A strong position on immigration would change the dynamics, but which party is willing to take the risk?

But I was surprised by the result in the race for Duke Cunningham’s seat, and perhaps even more surprised by Markos “moral victories” Zuniga’s pessimism after that race. I guess the big question is whether the disgust with Congress leads to a throw-out-the-rascals moment or a case of voters of all stripes throwing up their hands in the air in disgust. If it’s the latter, and the Cunningham race implied, Republicans just may hang on, though it’s a victory they should take no solace in. The ideological divisions on the left may make it hard for Democrats to present the kind of united front that could turn that voter disgust into a throw-out-the-rascals election.