Rudy Returns To Republican Race
It makes a good alliterative headline, anyway…however, the truth of the matter is that Rudy is still talking like an undecided man, and he’s going to have to cross that threshold soon if he really wants to make a go of it:
Former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani said on Monday that he was seriously exploring whether he has “a chance” of winning the presidency in 2008, as he visited politically important Iowa and huddled with state advisers, donors to President Bush and other prominent Republicans.
While Mr. Giuliani was officially in Iowa to attend two Republican fund-raisers, his behavior and remarks came close to politicking for himself. He ruminated openly about running, disclosed he was not sure what he would do if his friend John McCain also ran, and argued that if Republicans are to be a majority party, they need to accept politicians like himself who support abortion rights, gay rights and gun control.
“I’ve got a lot of places to go and a lot of people to talk to and a long process of figuring out whether it makes sense to run for president in 2008,” Mr. Giuliani said before speaking at a daytime fund-raiser in Des Moines for a Republican congressional candidate. “I don’t know the answer to that yet.”
He added: “My effort this year will be to help Republicans get elected, and then, quite honestly, as part of it, saying to myself, does it look like I have a chance in 2008? And make that decision after the 2006 election.”
Rudy also addressed such diverse topics as a McCain presidential bid and United 93:
At a fund-raiser in Davenport on Monday night, Mr. Giuliani offered a stout defense of President Bush’s leadership, arguing that the economy was growing and that Mr. Bush would go down in history as “a great president.”
“I don’t know what we’re all so upset about,” he said, referring to concerns about the economy and rising costs, such as gas prices.
At another point he called the war in Afghanistan “successful,” noting that the Taliban had been ousted from power and that elections had been held. Later, when pressed, he acknowledged that a primary American goal — the capture of Osama bin Laden — had not been achieved.
“It would be better if bin Laden were captured,” Mr. Giuliani said, “but it’s better that he’s on the run.”
In response to another question, Mr. Giuliani disclosed that he was not sure if his own presidential plans would be swayed if Senator McCain of Arizona also ran in 2008, as many expect.
“John is a good friend and someone I have tremendous admiration for, and he’s a hero of mine, so I haven’t really thought about how I would approach that,” Mr. Giuliani said.
And Mr. Giuliani weighed in on the new film “United 93,” about one of the hijacked planes on Sept. 11, saying that he saw the film on Saturday and found it “very difficult to watch.”
“I thought it was a valuable contribution to explaining the heroism of those people who I believed saved the Capitol, and gave up their lives to do that,” he said. “I think it’s something that people should see in order to remind themselves of what’s going on. When we say the war on terror, there’s a reason for it.”
I’ve long suspected that part of the reason Rudy’s staying out is that his friend McCain is so clearly in. I still maintain that, if Rudy still likes making millions two years from now and if the social issues remain an albatross around his neck w/r/t GOP primary voters, the McCain factor will probably tip the scales in favor of not running. But if Rudy’s bored, who knows?
That said, this line does concern me a little:
“..politicians like himself who support abortion rights, gay rights and gun control.”
Nowhere does Rudy indicate that he plans to attempt triangulation on these issues. The modern GOP is the pro-life, pro-2nd Amdt party. That doesn’t mean that every Republican has to agree with those elements of the platform; they most certainly won’t. And it doesn’t mean there should be a litmus test to be a Republican; there shouldn’t (and if there was, I’d probably fail it). But it does mean that the leader of the party has to be able to advance the agenda in some way of voters that care about those issues, as those voters have been an essential part of the Reagan coalition since 1980.
I’ve long suggested that a good way for Rudy to do this without giving up his core principles is to take a stand as a federalist; i.e., Rudy could say he’s personally pro-choice, but he thinks the people should decide that issue, not the courts, and he’ll appoint federalist judges as a consequence. That sort of move would be distinctly conservative. It devolves power away from a central authority, it gives power to the people, and it makes sure that elected officials accountable to voters get to make policy. That would be a move in the spirit of Reaganism. It would be the kind of move that would unite conservatives, libertarians, and a lot of moderates on these divisive social issues.
Instead, it looks like Rudy’s planning on running as a brazen social liberal. If that’s the case, he won’t be the nominee. The minute Rudy informs us that his judges will be no threat to Roe is the minute that his quest for the nomination comes to an end.
We should remember that line is not a direct quote from Giuliani, but a description by a Times reporter who most likely is sympathetic to those positions, and thus writes the story with the standard “can Giuliani win the hearts of the simple people in flyover country” perspective. So it’s probably too much to conclude just how Giuliani would deal with the social issues if he runs based on that paraphrasing.
But your overall point remains a valid one. I noticed he specified he would make a decision after the midterms. To me, that sounds like he’s saying that he’s more likely to run if the Republicans get pasted this fall, because Republicans might be more inclined to give him a pass on social issues if they think they’re headed for doom in ’08.
I just hope he makes that decision quickly after the midterms. If he pulls some drawn-out Hamlet routine, it’ll be much harder for him to capitalize on his previous image as a decisive leader.
Maybe it’s my pre-existing pro-Rudy bias, but I’m tempted to take the bit about McCain more or less at face value. Dave, I think you’re right; to the degree we can ever read the minds of the circus freaks we have for politicians, my BS detector doesn’t go off there.
Dennis is also right; the words on the page of this report are not necessarily incompatible with the federalist approach. And it’s true that, whether he ends up on the ticket or not, a Republican party that makes itself gratuitously hostile to the Rudys and mini-Rudys out there, is a party that’s got problems. (Non-gratuitous hostility is always okay, of course).
If McCain runs, and if it looks like he’s got a good shot, Rudy becomes worse than superfluous. As one of his biggest boosters I know (I’m only waiting til the midterms, because earlier would be just too damn soon, to get a custom-printed RUDY CAN’T FAIL bumper sticker),
I’ve come to accept that at best one out of Rudy and McCain are going to get their tickets punched.
The reason why I try to tell my self it’s STILL TO EARLY FOR THIS is that prolonged consideration of what’s going to go down brings up the specter of a protracted, nasty McCain/Allen slugfest. 2000 replay. In the words of one of the best Seinfeld episodes of all:
“That’s not gonna be good for business …
That’s not gonna be good for *anybody*.”
Hi All,
I know it [probably] won’t [ever] happen, but the best thing Rudy could do for himself and for the Republican Party is make a run for Senator against Senator Clinton in New York. This would force Senator Clinton to spend a significant part of her war chest in New York, and it would prepare Rudy for a run for the President in 2008. I know I’m dreaming.
Dare to dream!