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	<title>Comments on: It&#8217;s The Tax Cuts, Stupid &#8211; Part Four</title>
	<atom:link href="http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/</link>
	<description>Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree</description>
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		<title>By: peter</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24125</link>
		<dc:creator>peter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 May 2006 14:58:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24125</guid>
		<description>Call me dystopian if you will, but I&#039;m expecting that the government will tacitly allow the currency to be inflated as the only way to repay the debt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Call me dystopian if you will, but I&#8217;m expecting that the government will tacitly allow the currency to be inflated as the only way to repay the debt.</p>
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		<title>By: too many steves</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24115</link>
		<dc:creator>too many steves</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 May 2006 10:16:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24115</guid>
		<description>Call me utopian if you will, but I&#039;m dreaming of a major reduction in spending as the means of returning to fiscal responsibility.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Call me utopian if you will, but I&#8217;m dreaming of a major reduction in spending as the means of returning to fiscal responsibility.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24096</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 May 2006 03:13:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24096</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m going to take that as a compliment...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m going to take that as a compliment&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Jacques Distler</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24095</link>
		<dc:creator>Jacques Distler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 May 2006 02:58:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24095</guid>
		<description>Your point, I &lt;em&gt;thought&lt;/em&gt;, was to demonstrate that the tax cuts led to a spectacular burst of economic growth.

They didn&#039;t.

Even cherry-picking what years you want look at, economic growth under Bush II has been mediocre, at best.

What the tax cuts &lt;em&gt;have&lt;/em&gt; led to is large structural deficits. Now, I know Ryan B. will disagree, but most economists will tell you that chronic deficits lead (ceteris paribus) to higher long-term interest rates. Which &lt;em&gt;hurts&lt;/em&gt; economic growth.

All the fine talk about fiscal discipline on the spending side is just that &#8212; &lt;strong&gt;talk&lt;/strong&gt;. Revenues dropped from 20.9% of GDP in 2000 to 16.3% of GDP in 2004, before rebounding slightly to 17.5% in 2005 (whoop-dee-do!). Meanwhile, spending climbed from 18.4% of GDP to 20.1%.
(N.b.: the on-budget numbers are even more dismal.)

If you think that a return to fiscal responsibility is possible without rolling back, at least &lt;em&gt;part&lt;/em&gt; of the Bush tax cuts, you are either a visionary or a dreamer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your point, I <em>thought</em>, was to demonstrate that the tax cuts led to a spectacular burst of economic growth.</p>
<p>They didn&#8217;t.</p>
<p>Even cherry-picking what years you want look at, economic growth under Bush II has been mediocre, at best.</p>
<p>What the tax cuts <em>have</em> led to is large structural deficits. Now, I know Ryan B. will disagree, but most economists will tell you that chronic deficits lead (ceteris paribus) to higher long-term interest rates. Which <em>hurts</em> economic growth.</p>
<p>All the fine talk about fiscal discipline on the spending side is just that &mdash; <strong>talk</strong>. Revenues dropped from 20.9% of GDP in 2000 to 16.3% of GDP in 2004, before rebounding slightly to 17.5% in 2005 (whoop-dee-do!). Meanwhile, spending climbed from 18.4% of GDP to 20.1%.<br />
(N.b.: the on-budget numbers are even more dismal.)</p>
<p>If you think that a return to fiscal responsibility is possible without rolling back, at least <em>part</em> of the Bush tax cuts, you are either a visionary or a dreamer.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24093</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 May 2006 01:11:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24093</guid>
		<description>Well, but my point here, believe it or not, is not to compare Bush versus Clinton - the economy did great in the Clinton years - but rather to argue for making the tax cuts permanent.  Are tax cuts the only spurs to a great economy?  No - Clinton did well with deficit reduction and NAFTA and benefited from the dot.com boom - there is more than one way to skin a cat.  Tax cuts, however, are a net boon (but let me repeat for the record that we need spending disclipline, and the Republican leadership, and the President, have been pretty pathetic on that score)...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, but my point here, believe it or not, is not to compare Bush versus Clinton &#8211; the economy did great in the Clinton years &#8211; but rather to argue for making the tax cuts permanent.  Are tax cuts the only spurs to a great economy?  No &#8211; Clinton did well with deficit reduction and NAFTA and benefited from the dot.com boom &#8211; there is more than one way to skin a cat.  Tax cuts, however, are a net boon (but let me repeat for the record that we need spending disclipline, and the Republican leadership, and the President, have been pretty pathetic on that score)&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Jacques Distler</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24087</link>
		<dc:creator>Jacques Distler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 May 2006 22:38:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24087</guid>
		<description>Fine.

Drop the first two years of the current Administration as &quot;bad data points&quot;. Average Real GDP Growth for the subsequent 3 years was 3.48%.

Better than the postwar average, but pathetic compared to similarly cherry-picked &quot;good years&quot; from the Clinton era.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fine.</p>
<p>Drop the first two years of the current Administration as &#8220;bad data points&#8221;. Average Real GDP Growth for the subsequent 3 years was 3.48%.</p>
<p>Better than the postwar average, but pathetic compared to similarly cherry-picked &#8220;good years&#8221; from the Clinton era.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24086</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 May 2006 22:27:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24086</guid>
		<description>Sure, and that includes the recession and 9/11.  The Bush tax cuts are - at least that&#039;s my argument - a spur for the real growth, and that&#039;s the time frame I&#039;m concerned with.  I&#039;ll also admit that the war, which occurred at roughly the same time, was a big factor...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sure, and that includes the recession and 9/11.  The Bush tax cuts are &#8211; at least that&#8217;s my argument &#8211; a spur for the real growth, and that&#8217;s the time frame I&#8217;m concerned with.  I&#8217;ll also admit that the war, which occurred at roughly the same time, was a big factor&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Jacques Distler</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24084</link>
		<dc:creator>Jacques Distler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 May 2006 21:59:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24084</guid>
		<description>Looking to the National Review for accurate economic statistic is like looking to RJ Reynolds for health information.

Go to the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Bureau of Economic Analysis&lt;/a&gt;.  You will find that from 1946-2005, annual Real GDP Growth was 3.35%. During the 8 years of the Clinton Administration, it was 3.71%. During Clinton&#039;s 2nd term, it was 4.20%.

Over the first 5 years of the current Administration, annual Real GDP Growth was 2.55%.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looking to the National Review for accurate economic statistic is like looking to RJ Reynolds for health information.</p>
<p>Go to the <a href="http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp" rel="nofollow">Bureau of Economic Analysis</a>.  You will find that from 1946-2005, annual Real GDP Growth was 3.35%. During the 8 years of the Clinton Administration, it was 3.71%. During Clinton&#8217;s 2nd term, it was 4.20%.</p>
<p>Over the first 5 years of the current Administration, annual Real GDP Growth was 2.55%.</p>
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		<title>By: mikebdot</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24068</link>
		<dc:creator>mikebdot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 May 2006 19:47:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24068</guid>
		<description>Well, it sort of depends on how one measures &quot;economic growth&quot;...

According to &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_buzzcharts/buzzcharts200403120853.asp&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;this &lt;/a&gt;NRO article WWII average was 3.5% and Clinton was 3.6%, so 3.9% is indeed higher, but not &quot;well above&quot; either.  Also, Clinton&#039;s second term was 4%, so that was obviously a 4 year period where it was higher.

In any event, the numbers are so close I don&#039;t think they&#039;re statistical significant differences (i.e. it could very well be noise).  If the tax cuts were repealed and it went back to 1.4% like the 2 years prior to tax cut, I would definitely be closer to a &quot;believer&quot;.  It still would not change my views on fiscal restraint though.  :)

P.S. I just like the sound of &quot;hardy har har&quot; as a sarcastic type laugh, but showing that it&#039;s all in good fun.  :)  Have a terrific weekend!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, it sort of depends on how one measures &#8220;economic growth&#8221;&#8230;</p>
<p>According to <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_buzzcharts/buzzcharts200403120853.asp" rel="nofollow">this </a>NRO article WWII average was 3.5% and Clinton was 3.6%, so 3.9% is indeed higher, but not &#8220;well above&#8221; either.  Also, Clinton&#8217;s second term was 4%, so that was obviously a 4 year period where it was higher.</p>
<p>In any event, the numbers are so close I don&#8217;t think they&#8217;re statistical significant differences (i.e. it could very well be noise).  If the tax cuts were repealed and it went back to 1.4% like the 2 years prior to tax cut, I would definitely be closer to a &#8220;believer&#8221;.  It still would not change my views on fiscal restraint though.  <img src='http://informedspeculation.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>P.S. I just like the sound of &#8220;hardy har har&#8221; as a sarcastic type laugh, but showing that it&#8217;s all in good fun.  <img src='http://informedspeculation.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' />   Have a terrific weekend!</p>
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		<title>By: too many steves</title>
		<link>http://informedspeculation.com/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/comment-page-1/#comment-24061</link>
		<dc:creator>too many steves</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 May 2006 18:28:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://decision08.net/2006/05/11/its-the-tax-cuts-stupid-part-four/#comment-24061</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s not really the fact that you laugh, it&#039;s the style that bugs me.  j/k  :)

The Clinton thing isn&#039;t an attack on him or his presidency, it is a defensive tactic in response to the recession (2000) being widely, broadly, and often blamed on Bush.

I must confess that I don&#039;t know what the annual growth rate was for the economy in the Clinton years.  Was it greater or lesser than the post WWII average (which I understand to be the average for all the years since WWII) and was it greater or lesser than the 3.9% they cite?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not really the fact that you laugh, it&#8217;s the style that bugs me.  j/k  <img src='http://informedspeculation.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>The Clinton thing isn&#8217;t an attack on him or his presidency, it is a defensive tactic in response to the recession (2000) being widely, broadly, and often blamed on Bush.</p>
<p>I must confess that I don&#8217;t know what the annual growth rate was for the economy in the Clinton years.  Was it greater or lesser than the post WWII average (which I understand to be the average for all the years since WWII) and was it greater or lesser than the 3.9% they cite?</p>
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