A Democratic Landslide in 2006?
It’s more than possible, it’s probable, says Ron Fournier:
Republicans are three steps from a November shellacking _ each a grim possibility if habitually divided Democrats get their acts together.
First step: Voters must focus on the national landscape on Nov. 7 rather than local issues and personalities that usually dominate midterm elections.
That would sting Republicans, who trail badly in national polls.
Second step: Voters must be so angry at Washington and politics in general that an anti-incumbent, throw-the-bums-out mentality sweeps the nation.
That would wound Republicans, the majority party.
Third step: Americans must view the elections as a referendum on President Bush and the GOP-led Congress, siding with Democrats in a symbolic vote against the Iraq war, rising gas prices, economic insecurity and the nagging sense that the nation is on the wrong track.
That would destroy Republicans, sweeping them from power in one or both chambers and making Bush a lame duck.
Less than six months out, most Democratic and Republican strategists say the first two elements are in place for now – a national, anti- incumbent mind-set – and all signs point to the third.
Maybe – it’s true that the landscape has shifted dramatically, and people who once scoffed openly at the odds of a Democratic takeover are mostly silent now. But as John McCain says, there is time yet:
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., says GOP majorities are “clearly in jeopardy” because the political landscape is both anti-incumbent and anti-Republican.
“They know that Republicans are in charge,” the grim-faced presidential hopeful said of voters. “But I just want to emphasize that we have six months, and we can turn this around.”
I still think the best opportunity for the Republicans to get back on track is to relentlessly zone in on the economy – the economy – the economy! It should be a reflexive, instinctual message – and all Republican candidates need to get on message and learn the stats by heart. If Americans are feeling economically unsure, as Fournier says, it’s because we haven’t sold them on the numbers.
Say it with me, now, all together – IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!…
IT’S THE ECONOMY – STUPID!…
But seriously, I’d say it’s much more difficult in 2006 to make election predictions than usual. I am interested in what you think of the results on the CQPolitics.com site.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/06map.html
With all due respect Mark, I think you’re wrong. I think you’re too readily dismissing voter dissatisfaction with the conduct of the war and voter disgust with the Imperial Congress. The snit-fit thrown by Denny Hastert over the FBI search of William Jefferson’s Capitol Hill office was especially galling.
Comrades,
I have no problem supporting the GWOT, or our operations in Iraq. There are certainly things could be done better, and the Administration could certainly do more to get the word out on how well it’s actually going over there.
However, I am disgusted with Congress and particularly my own Republican Senators Snowe and Collins. Both have become closet liberals, having more in common with Chaffee than with their own party platform.
I have deep disagreements with them regarding Immigration. I stringly urge building a physical wall and full deportations, regardless of the cost or time involved. Either we enforce the law, or we turn off the lights and say goodnight.
I’ve been a footsoldier for the GOP for more than 3 decades now. I’ve given cash, and sweat equity. I’ve stood on the street handing out flyers, written articles and letters to support our candidates and platform and served on numerous comittees. Now, I feel betrayed.
The Republicans have become free-spending aristocrats, slurping obscenely at the public trough while slashing benefits for their constituants. They would rather give amnesty to illegal aliens and a path to citizenship than support wounded veterans. I am sick of it all.
And don’t get me going about the back-stabbing lying Democrats, whose main attributes seem to be inventing new forms of anti-American drivel and searching for face time to spew it about on camera.
I would rather see Congress sit out a couple of terms and see what happens. Give the nation a chance to find real citizens with backbones and a sense of honor, duty and country to fill those seats.
Were it at all possible to line up every member of congress and send them home with a coat of tar and feathers and orders to never return to public service, I’d be the first in line to swing a brush.
I have 3 choices now. Run for office myself, sit out this election and NOT vote, or swallow the bitter pill and vote to keep the Dems from getting in. The most pallitable would be to run myself for office, but then you have to deal with the muckrakers in the media, who take pleasure in tarnishing reputations, who seem to relish destroying people on their pages. If that’s the best option for a voter, then we as a nation have sunk to a terrible low.
Thankfully, I’ve got a few weeks still to decide. I might as well start drinking…….
Respects,
Gwedd
Fred, that’s a very interesting map…I need more time to study it – a follow-up post, perhaps?…
Uh, how exactly are the “back-stabbing lying Democrats” going about “inventing new forms of anti-American drivel?”
There are Americans pissed off about Iraq and there are Americans pissed off about immigration. But there is no dramatic shift of the landscape. Neither party has done anything to appeal to the pissed.
There is absolutely no chance of a landslide either way in 2006. There is a high probability of low voter turnout both ways. Therefore, it is much, much, better for Republicans if Democrats believe or act like they believe they are going to win in a landslide. Talk of a landslide will motivate some of the pissed off Republicans to go ahead and hold their nose and vote.
The writer almost exhorts the voters to focus on the national, and not local, issues. Pardon me, but doesn’t almost every voter focus on the local dynamics, at least in an off – election year?
How many times have we seen voters interviewed, and they exclaim how fed – up they are with “Washington Politicians,” but then immediately add “oh, but MY guy’s OK.”
David, I don’t think it would take a landside for the Democrats to at least take back the House. Just a few people as ticked off as I am about pork-barrel spending, illegal immigration (how did I forget that one in my first comment?!), the “laws are made for thee, not me” attitude exemplified by Hastert’s temper tantrum, etc. And they don’t even have to be anti-Republican, just anti-incumbent. (Not one of my better thought out replies, but it’s been a rough day.)
Hi fatman4003,
I do think the Democrats can take back the house, but it won’t, even can’t, be a landslide. The most likely scenario though is slight gains for Democrats in both the House and the Senate with control still belonging to Republicans. Over 3 million Republicans in California can be pissed off at Republicans for immigration and spending without a single Senate or House seat changing parties. 5 million Democrats in California can be totally and completely and venomously pissed at Democrats for Iraq without a single seat changing parties. [Note: my numbers are wild-ass guesses, but not wild-ass exaggerations.]
Just as the laws are made for thee, congressional districts are made for incumbents, and the one thing Senators are very good at is knowing the electorate of their individual State. Those who expect a landslide are going to be very disappointed. Of course, Mr. Fournier will blame the Democrats, not his own inane analysis.
I don’t see a landslide — not only is there the power of incumbency, but the Republicans have a much larger warchest to fight close campaigns –
My sentiments exactly, David. And for the record, it’s just plain old “fatman”. Why I typed in the “4003″ (it is part of one of my e-mail addies) I’ll never know. Like I said before, a rough day.
Eat out your heart!