Informed Speculation

Well, it’s progress of a sort, I guess.  The new proposal being presented to Iran may softpedal the negative implications if it refuses to halt its nuclear weapons program, but at least it reportedly commits Russian and China to take action if Iran refuses:

Although details of the five- to six-page document agreed to in Vienna were not announced, incentives discussed before the meeting included an international effort to assist Iran’s nuclear industry, including construction of a light-water reactor and guarantees of a long-term supply of fuel. That would represent a significant shift from the Bush administration’s past insistence that Iran has no need for nuclear power. Increased trade and investment have also been discussed.

Aides to Rice said the deal also commits China and Russia to a long list of specific steps to punish Iran if it refuses to halt its enrichment program. Both countries have resisted sanctions for months, arguing that they could backfire.

Addressing reporters here, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized the incentives in the package and did not mention possible negative measures. He said it was important that all six powers be united in making the offer, including the United States, which he said found it difficult to offer inducements to Iran.

The possible sanctions in the agreement are listed as a menu, ranging from minor to major, diplomats said. It was unclear whether there was agreement on which options to choose if Iran fails to act.

Diplomats have said that measures under discussion include an embargo on export of goods and technologies relevant to nuclear programs, the freezing of assets of organizations and people involved in the programs, and a suspension of technical cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Broader measures include a freeze on bilateral contacts, a visa and travel ban for senior Iranian officials, an arms embargo, an embargo on certain exports and an end to support for Iran’s bid to join the World Trade Organization.

To be sure, very few people expect Iran to accept the offer…we’re still on the path to sanctions and/or war, but at a slower clip and with every (ostensibly, at least) on board…

For a departure from the conventional wisdom that Iran’s oil prevents us from effective sanctions, see William P. Kucewicz, who argues that trade sanctions would cripple Iran, which is heavily dependent on petro-dollars…