McCain: The Nomination Is His To Lose
So says Ralph Hallow in the Washington Times:
Some top Republicans at odds with Sen. John McCain on core conservative issues say privately that the party’s 2008 presidential nomination is “his to lose.”
They cite the Arizona senator’s head start in fundraising, a primary calendar that is shaping up in his favor and a growing belief that he enjoys the tacit support of President Bush.
In state after state, Mr. McCain has been passing out money to Republican candidates for other offices, to state party organizations and even to Republican county chairmen. Extending such largess to the county level is unheard of in pre-nomination campaign maneuvering, party officials say.
Yes, but look out for Rudy, who, if Page Six is to believed (and who doesn’t believe everything they read in a gossip column?), is saying he WILL run if he can raise the funds (and he can raise the funds, make no mistake) (hat tip to the RCP Blog)….
I like this “tacit support” business. If Bush came right out in favor of McCain, even despite Bush’s popularity woes, would that be enough to virtually guarantee the nomination for McCain?
I personally think it probably would sew things up for McCain for better or worse.
The danger for McCain (as I read other bloggers comment) is that the support he has is a mile wide and an inch deep. If GOP’ers are given an acceptable alternate, (one that has not teed everyone in the Republican Party off for instance), I would not be suprised to see them bolt.
I’m sorry, but I just don’t buy it. The grassroots are focused on this year’s elections and 12-18 months is a LONG time to hold on to front-runner status. Like Kavon says, it seems more likely that McCain’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
At this point in the game, labeling someone a “frontrunner” is no different than predicting a championship winner before the season starts, and most know how often those who make such attempts at prophesy succeed – rarely.
McCain v Hillary would be a momentary headscratcher for me. McCain seems to hold hardest to the most objectionable elements of his programs (I’m thinkin’ CFR here) and to have little grasp of the principles undergirding our liberties although he would almost certainly be good on the war and reliable on the economy. His clapping like a clockwork chimp on earmark reform at the SOTU did much to repair his breach with conservatism generally, and it should have. Hillary is, I think, most of the dreadful things she is called yet is a pragmatist at root, it seems. And frankly I suspect she would be MORE aggressive on many aspects of the GWOT than the Bushies. Rudy could really make philosophical inroads with me and a serious GOP segment but tactically it seems that whenever speculation this early declares a gotterdamerung between two giants, the two giants punch themselves out and some third no-namer actually takes the prize. Well, let’s see what happens in Nov ’06.
I’m with Evan. I don’t buy it either.
Perhaps much of the money behind President Bush is also lining up behind Senator McCain at this point, but President Bush himself will not be the one who decides and crowns the party nominee in 2008.
Senator McCain may be the most acceptable candidate to the largest number of Republicans right now, but he is not at the top of list for very many active Republicans. Iowa and New Hampshire won’t decide the Republican nominee either. Let’s see if Senator McCain can carry a southern state or two before we declare his nomination inevitable.
Bush/Rove are positioning McCain to be the GOP nominee in ’08. While their differences and animosity are pretty big…I believe that Bush/Rove feel McCain is the only Republican who can win in ’08.
Mark McKinnon, Bush’s PR man out of Texas the last two campaigns and for Governor before that, has hooked up with McCain’s “Straight Talk” group and has made it clear that should McCain run, he’s going to be working on the Senator’s behalf. McKinnon could not make this move without Rove’s say so…Rove will keep the Religious Right and NeoCons at bay in ’08 and make sure they don’t get in McCain’s way, as he and the President know McCain is the GOP’s only hope of keeping the WH. Such is the reason Rove was just put back in charge of politics after a failed stint in policy. He’s a political guru and will take care of the right wing of the GOP relative to smoke filled back room deals to get them either in line behind McCain or just keeping their pie holes shut.
John McCain is the most popular politician in America across the board. Who else does the GOP have? Mitt Romney? He’ll be lucky to get reelected Gov of MA, plus he’s a Mormon and that won’t fly nationwide. Rudy? Yesterday’s news, too much baggage relative to his personal life plus if the right wing ends up not behind McCain, no chance in hell they’d get behind Rudy. George Allen? His dead dad is more popular in Virginia than he is. Brownback? Looks like a televangelist with a bad haircut. Santorum? Makes Reagan look like a Communist and won’t get reelected in ’06.. Frist? Outside of Mercy Hospital in Nashville no one knows him. Gingrich? Too controversial. Condi? Countries not ready for that and if a black woman were elected President she’d never make it to January 20th, still too many wacko’s around. There aren’t any Republican Governors of note, perhaps Owens of Colorado but too conservative for the current general electorate and Jeb can’t run this soon after his brother. Huckabee isn’t camera friendly (see RMN, ’60). Rove/Bush realize all of this and that’s why they got McKinnon on board with McCain and will be supporting him behind closed doors.
But that’s just my opinion. What say you?