If Lieberman is no longer a Democrat, why would he care about any of that?

I’m not so sure about that, Mark. If Lieberman loses the primary, a lot will change. Virtually all of the national Democratic party will support Lamont (albeit reluctantly). They’ll have to support the legitimate Democratic nominee. That will mean there will be enormous pressure put on Leiberman to drop his independent bid, particularly given the real risk that such a run will torpedo the chances of the various Democrats running in Connecticut house races and give the Republicans a chance to pick up a Senate seat. So there is a real chance, I think, that Leiberman would eventually drop his independent run under pressure from his colleagues.

Moreover, the current poll has the GOP candidate polling at only 9%. If this becomes a legitimate three-way race, expect the GOP to put some money and effort into trying to get their guy high enough to squeak out a win. And any additional support he gets will come directly from Lieberman’s numbers. So even if this does turn out to be a three-way race, I wouldn’t expect Lieberman’s poll numbers to remain as favorable as they are now. That’s particularly true if he loses handily to Lamont in the primary and looks like, dare I say, a Sore Loserman by refusing to accept the verdict of the primary voters.

I’ll probably be here when the next poll comes around, or at least the when elections results are posted. I still don’t see Lamont breaking 40%.

I concur with Evan on the Lieberman remaining in the democratic caucus. I can’t find the exact quote, but I seem to remember him saying something to that effect. lieberman is a dem, and will always be a dem-his reelection will have no impact on the actual senate numbers.

but I have heard that Liberman has already stated he will caucus with the Dems if he wins as an independent. If this is true, then it doesn’t change anything

He did, but since he’ll be backed by a wider range of voters he’ll have the leverage to vote exactly as he pleases. Definitely makes it more interesting.

I have been saying this for a while…this is the worst nightmare for the establishment Dems and they have got to be praying the 3rd party run doesn’t become a trend. Think of Democrats running in red states, this is an effective distancing (from the nutroot sentiment) for them.

Me thinks that’s why Clinton is headed to CT.

It also serves to drive their party even further to the left, which hurts them nationally.

It’s a loss all around for the Nutroots and the Democratic Party.

So true.

There are center-lefties who aren’t nutso consumed with the Liberman/Bush hug and consider Liberman to be a well reasoned voice of their party on more issues that just the war…if ever there a reason for center-left Dems to make the switch, this is it.

I believe he has to caucus with one of the parties in order for his committee assignments to be arranged appropriately, but again, I’m not 100% sure on that either. Bottom line is that if Liberman wins as an independent, it’s a net loss for the Dems, but not any kind of gain for the GOP (which is why it’s a stupid strategy for the Dems to get behind Lamont, who will probably not win the senate seat).

Does getting him to caucus with us really change anything?

My understadning is that he can: a. caucus with the Dems, b. caucus with the GOP, or c. not caucus with either.

Is this understanding correct and what effect does it really have?

The Nutroots actions will gain them nothing. Lieberman will run as an Independent and win, losing the Dems one crucial seat.

It also serves to drive their party even further to the left, which hurts them nationally.

It’s a loss all around for the Nutroots and the Democratic Party.

Every single time I think to myself “how could the Democratic Party be so foolish?”, they find a way to top themselves.

I hear Lieberman will still caucus with the Dems when he wins as an Indy. Does anyone think there is a chance that we could get him to caucus with us instead? Is it absolutely out of the realm of possibility for a change in party affiliation?