Rudy Not Even In The Top 5?
I like Chris Cillizza’s column, The Fix – it’s usually a must-read for political junkies. But Rudy G. as a second-tier candidate? Just because Cillizza has a gut feeling he won’t run, despite the increasing signs that he will? Don’t take my word for it, here’s Cillizza:
Giuliani’s schedule of late makes us think he is running for president, as do the meetings he has hosted with prominent fundraisers from President Bush’s successful races. But Giuliani remains largely unorganized in Iowa and New Hampshire (no staff that we know about) and appears to be running a sort of national campaign rather than several well-funded state efforts. In the end it still seems hard to believe that Giuliani will leave his extremely lucrative life in the private sector for a grueling campaign in which every jot and tittle of his personal life will be examined.
That argument might be convincing if the point was to show how McCain is still the frontrunner – but as an argument agains Rudy even making the top five, it just doesn’t cut it. If Rudy runs, he’s instantly the man to beat…
I’m finding myself less and less impressed with the “Rudy simply can’t win the nomination because of social conservatives,” since it often seems to be coming from people who themselves aren’t social conservatives, and don’t know any social conservatives.
I’d be a lot more interested in hearing some polling of actual social conservatives. Some obviously won’t vote for him, like our own fatman, but I’m betting it’s not the universal disdain that socially liberal pundits seem to assume.
Agreed. The “Rudy can’t carry social conservatives” argument is ALSO silly because Rudy doesn’t need to carry their vote to win the nomination, he just needs to pick off about 25-30%. And even then, he doesn’t need to be their first choice, he just needs to be preferred over the more conservative Republican that will likely emerge in the early rounds of primary voting. And, c’mon, is it really THAT difficult to believe that 25% of social conservative Republicans could be persuaded to nominate Rudy Giuliani over George Allen?
dmac is going to choke when he reads this (or choke me).
I actually can think of one set of circumstances where I could vote for Giuliani with a clear conscience. He would have to be running against McCain in a primary or against the Hilde-beast in the general election. The GOP would have to be at least a strong bet to retain control of both houses of Congress. And Bush would have had to have already appointed at least one more justice (and preferably two) to the SCOTUS without screwing it up as he almost did with Miers.
That’s my biggest fear. That all the efforts that have been made to reign in the Court by appointing originalist justices will be flushed down the toilet by Bush or his successor appointing another Kennedy or Souter.
…well, I did have some trouble getting my coffee down this morning after reading this, Fatman. But I understand where you’re coming from – kind of like if all of the stars in the cosmos are aligned just so…yadda, yadda, yadda.
Exactly.
Sean,
I don’t understand your contention that Rudy doesn’t need the social conservatives to win the nomination. They didn’t support McCain in ’00 (who is anti-abortion, Rudy is choice) ie; South Carolina, the beginning of the end for McCain then why would they support Rudy, who is vastly less conservative than McCain?
I do believe that the social conservatives will be less influential this go-around, but I also believe Rove and the WH are gearing up to tell them to shut it and back McCain as I see the writing on the wall that the WH is going to be backroom supporting him (see Mark McKinnon, Bush’s top PR guy his last 4 elections now working for Straight Talk Express and publicly indicating he’ll work for McCain ’08 should he run). A guy like McKinnon can’t do something like that without the blessing of Emperor Rove.
I think they assume McCain is the only nationally popular enough Republican left anymore who could win the General election. I agree. Who else could? George Allen? His dead dad, Hall of Famer coach Allen is more popular in Virginia than he is. Santorum is so conservative he makes John Birch look like a communist. Besides, he’ll be lucky to get re-elected in PA. Huckabee can’t win, no Governor of Arkansas can get elected President (we can’t say what about Bill—he was an extraordinarily special case. While I don’t support his politics, I must give him the credit of being a masterful politican on the same level as Reagan). Gingrich burned too many bridges and finally, among those mentioned as true GOP contenders, there’s Condi and the country isn’t ready for a black woman President. Besides, I’m afraid there are still too many hillbilly’s in Northern MI or Idaho or wherever, a black person, if elected Prez, would never make it to Jan 20th.