Scaling Down Expectations
David Horovitz and the Jerusalem Post have been pretty heavy cheerleaders for the Israelis in their war against Hezbollah, so when I see him writing things like this, I realize my own expectations of the war’s outcome have probably been inflated:
Amid the growing chorus of complaint inside Israel regarding the purportedly belated and insufficient use of ground forces, a key counter argument is that Israel is so traumatized by its Lebanon history that the pro-war consensus three weeks ago would have been shattered had the IDF opened up not with air strikes, but with a wide ground offensive. The political echelon is also adamant that the IDF never sought its approval for anything broader.
It seems plain, however, that the IDF overestimated what it could achieve from the air and underestimated Hizbullah’s resilience. If it was starting over, the resort to ground forces, if not immediate, would certainly be more rapid.
What is unarguable is Israel’s desperate determination, even at the cost of leaving this job half-done, not to find itself bogged down in Lebanon long-term again. This war might end early next week, or it might go on for a few days more, but nobody is talking about fighting on into late August, never mind next month.
Indeed the concerted effort now, in government and in the IDF, is to start determinedly talking victory – to assert that Hizbullah has been badly battered; that some Arab nations and many Lebanese openly recoil from it; that Israel has demonstrated an undreamed of capacity to absorb missile strikes and hit back, to absorb kidnappings and hit back.
Well, that’s not what was hoped for a few weeks ago – then the talk was of dismantling Hezbollah completely.
Not a happy note to begin the day on, but there you have it…
I’ll be honest enough to admit I was wrong if they wuss out. At the end of the day it’s Israel’s safety, they have to make the call. IF they stop half finished they will receive utterly no credit from the arabs and europeans who will harp on endlessly about the ‘war crimes’ and try to bring IDF generals before the Haige, the Hizb’allah will rearm and attack again and Nasrallah will emerge as the undisputed dictator of the new fundamentalist Islamic terrorist state of Hizballahstan. Jihadis around the world will cheer and claim it proves Israel can be beaten, enthusiasm for the possibility finally destroying the Jews will surge in every Arab capitol, Syria will be back in control of Lebanon and Iran will steam ahead with their nukes.
If that’s what they want it’s their call, and their funeral.
Personally I just simply cannot believe they can be that stupid.