At Long Last – Joementum!
Joe Lieberman is up significantly over Ned Lamont in the latest Quinnipiac survey (a 12-point lead). Incredibly, Lieberman has the support of 75% of the Republican voters in a three-way race that includes the Republican candidate(!):
“Sen. Lieberman’s support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.
It’s easy to see why the Nutroots® wanted Lieberman to go quietly and ‘respect the will of the voters’ rather than run as an Independent; looks like he may run away with this one in the general. Will Kos and Jane ‘respect the will of the voters’ then?
The way this summer has gone, I’ll take the good news where I can get it – and this is very good news indeed…
Do you think that kind of support will hold, given the other variables? Given Joe’s denouncement of the Democratic party, I’d expect contributors and supporters on the left side of the fence to start drying up soon, and I don’t expect to see all of that balanced out from the right side. Personally, I just don’t see Republicans in Connecticut being able to bring themselves to vote for someone who has pledged to caucus with the Dems if he’s re-elected. I mean, I could be dead wrong, but I’d really expect the results of the polling to be quite fluid in the coming months.
I expect it to hold, yes – if anything, the more Lamont opens his mouth and reveals he’s a big rich empty suit, the more buyer’s remorse Connecticut Independents and Democrats will feel.
I could be dead wrong, too (I was about Lamont, who at one time I gave ‘zero chance’ of beating Lieberman in the primary), but I expect a double-digit Lieberman win in November…
But Republican support. You expect Republican support to stay strong for a candidate who will caucus with the Democrats? Are they voting on the single issue of the war?
Well, I think the Republicans are being realists – just as many Democrats who voted for Al Gore in 2000 would have probably preferred Nader (at least those of the ‘progressive’ species), the Connecticut Republicans are smart enough to know that their candidate will not win in Connecticut, regardless.
So the question is really quite simple: do you want to contribute to the election of the very symbol of progressive anti-war neo-McGovernism, or do you want to send back your three-term incumbent who supports the President on Iraq?
The answer seems pretty clear for this Republican….
Fargus,
To answer your question, a lot of them have already voted for Lieberman in the past, including my mom, a pretty staunch Republican, who’s voted for Lieberman every time he’s run for Senate (not for VP mind you!). Others who are even further embedded in the Republican camp have told her that they, too, will vote for Lieberman this time around, and I’m pretty sure they’ll stick to their guns.
As Mark notes, Republicans are nothing if not pragmatic. The Republican candidate doesn’t have a hope in the world of winning. They know it boils down to this–do you want an experienced legislator in office that votes with Democrats most of the time but supports the President in Iraq and on national security issues or a freshman with no experience who will likely vote with Democrats, particularly Russ Feingold, all of the time?
I think it important to note that the Republican candidate has no hope of winning and enjoys very little support amoung the party (I’ve heard him described in a wide variety of non-flattering ways).
If the choice for Republicans is:
1. Ned Lamont – all Liberal all the time.
2. Joe Lieberman – mostly Liberal except on the GWOT and Iraq.
3. Republican nut case.
4. Don’t vote.
I think they choose #2 from now to eternity. It is also worth noting that CT is not Texas or some other tried & true Republican stronghold. It is in the Northeast and thus full of a kinder, gentler bunch of Righties.
You see the same dynamic here in Chicago, where if you’re a Republican, you can vote for a Democratic candidate or waste your time. The difference comes down to your specific kind of Democratic preference – the Richard Daley/Obama moderate stripe, or the Rahm Emmanuel/Jesse Jackson Jr. progressive type. As in Connecticut, it does come down to a matter of pragmatism.
I wonder how ned is going to make himself appealing to moderates and republicans.
He’s still got 75 days to make that happen.
A lot like the critique of the Bush admin-
“A rousing success at taking Iraq, but no plan for the occupation.”
The left planned for their primary victory, but had no further plans beyond it. Short-sightedness.
Can I call ned’s acceptance speech, his “Mission accomplished moment”?
As far as contributions go, everybody who wants Joe to win can help out at Joe2006.com. I’ve never donated my money — just my time — to campaigns before, but I intend to toss $20 in his coffer.
Yes, I’ve been considering a (small ) donation myself…