Lieberman Still Leads Lamont, But Not My Much
Two new polls show Joe Lieberman with a scant two-point lead over Ned Lamont (forgive the source, but Rasmussen has it hidden under Premium). I’ve somewhat glibly predicted a big Lieberman victory in November, just as I somewhat glibly predicted Ned Lamont had ZERO chance of knocking off Lieberman in the primary – but here’s my real prediction:
It will be very, very close, but Lieberman will win by 3 percentage points, give or take a half a point…
6-10% appear undecided.
My speculation is that if they do not support ned now, they never will. He has actually moved up to a 43% in support(eerily similar # to Bush’s approval ratings which the dems love to mock). Still he is sitting at low end 40’s and will need to move 6-8% higher to have a chance.
I would speculate further that the undecided are 50%independent, and 50% conservative. I’d be careful about inferring that a conservative would be willing to support Joe, especially for his distinctions on the war-perhaps they could be called ‘Buchanan’ conservatives. Likewise the independents are extrememly disturbed by Iraq, by still fail to see a legit dem plan suggesting an alternative.
Mark, just to be contrary, I’m predicting that Lamont wins by a moderate amount. The repeated stories in the MSM about Lieberman’s support among Republicans will push more Democrats to Lamont and he’ll take the election by about 5%.
While the election is probaly too near to be swung by the actual candidates, I feel that there are some externals left to play a hand in this.
Given that the Iraqis have offical taken their political role as of mid-June, they may independently establish a timetable which makes the whole argument and perception about getting out of Iraq a secondary issue. I sincerely doubt that the State Department is not desperately trying to get us out-’behind the scenes’- asap.
as a hypothetical, the timetable for withdrawal may already be drawn up, but is being kept under wraps for politcal considerations in both Iraq and the US.
The lack of a timetable is being used as the ultimate measure in determining the progress made. I think the dems would be well advised to be prepared for an October surprise, one which they cannot control and cannot spin, if redeployment, even at the behest of the Iraqis, were to occur late in the election cycle.
If you were Karl Rove, would you hold off on good news, til it became politcally expedient to announce? Seeing as there are little ramifications of the actual announcement in regards to our actual mission, it is something which can be sat upon until it is needed.
Polls bounce and shake and quiver all the time. If the next poll shows a similar level for Lamont, then we should be worried. This could just as easily be a artifact as a sudden shift in momentum.
Of course, I’m not a big poll person to begin with, so of course I’d have doubts.
and further…
even if no timetable exists, Bush could start making the move towards it in public.
The damage will have been done to the dems, as the most ‘progressive’ have already been clamoring about it for two years. It makes them eager to appease before it is time, and unable to gauge how to proceed on foreign policy. Bush is doing on his Iraq numbers, despite lacking a time table.
5 provinces have been turned over-which makes the quagmire argument look that much weaker. Casualty trends are down significantly since the completition of the Iraqi cabinet. My personal guess is that when 15 are under Iraqi control, the timetable will come rolling out.
It may even provide for the ‘happy Iraqi’ scenario that illudes fineman/matthews-as I don’t see the general Iraqi public sentiment being pessimistic when their govt is establishing control, and continues to express gratitude for their liberation.
History is still being written.
Lamont will win, as many independents and republicans are also growing weary of hte costly war in Iraq. Furthermore, they will become aware that Lieberman wants to privatize social security. Lieberman is now a full blown republican which CT cannot afford.
“Lieberman is now a full blown republican which CT cannot afford.”
Save for disagreements on issues like abortion, affirmative action, gay rights, hate crimes laws, illegal immigration and free trade, their views are nearly identical.
Are you even aware of Lieberman’s actual voting record, Paul? The ADA gives him a lifetime rating of 77 – that’s quite respectable for a Liberal politician. Just come out and say that because he’s for the war, you don’t like him – period. Any additional padding you give betrays your true feelings here.
Here’s the full report on Joe’s voting record over the years:
ADA liberal rating: 95%
ACU conservative rating: 0
NTU pro-taxpayer: 8%
Abortion rights: 100%
National Taxpayer’s Union: 0%
I am thinking Lamont will win … the self-destructive nature of local voters will echo the self-destructive nature of voters nationwide. It was kind of assumed that 2004 was the high-water mark for fringe politics among Democrats but we couldn’t have been more wrong.