Informed Speculation

E.J. Dionne thinks he sees a Republican stampede for the exits in Iraq:

By Election Day, how many Republican candidates will have come out against the Iraq War or distanced themselves from the administration’s policies?

August of 2006 will be remembered as a watershed in the politics of Iraq. It is the month in which a majority of Americans told pollsters that the struggle for Iraq was not connected to the larger war on terror. They thus renounced a proposition the administration has pushed relentlessly since it began making the case four years ago to invade Iraq.

That poll finding, from a New York Times/CBS News survey, came to life on the campaign trail when Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., one of the most articulate supporters of the war, announced last Thursday that he favored a time frame for withdrawing troops.

Wow, a politician in Connecticut who is in trouble because of his support for Iraq. Sounds very familiar…

I wouldn’t draw too many conclusions from the experience of a Republican in that deep blue state. Dionne’s entire article, however, is based on the premise that Republicans are beginning to call for a pullout, and the fact is that Shays is his lone example. The other Republicans cited are critical of our policy, but are not in favor of calling it a day, making Dionne’s conclusion a bit of a laugher:

The Republicans’ restiveness suggests that Bush may not be able to stick with his current Iraq policy through Election Day. Even if he does, he will come under heavy pressure from his own party after Nov. 7 to pursue a demonstrably more effective strategy — or to begin pulling American forces out.

I have no doubt that Iraq will give many Republicans grief in November, and I have no doubt that many of those Republicans are going to make critical noises regarding our policies. They have a right to do so, even if their motives are transparent. I myself have suggested that Bush needs to shake things up, and that Rumsfeld could do a service to his party by stepping down and taking some of the heat off of those seeking to retain their office.

I have seen no indication whatsoever, however, that Bush has any intentions of withdrawing from Iraq, or for setting a timetable for withdrawal. For better or worse, he has been consistent in his statement that ‘as the Iraqis stand up, we’ll stand down’. Dionne does a good job of noticing the symptoms of political panic among many Republicans, but he draws the wrong conclusion. As long as Bush is in office, our efforts in Iraq will continue.

Past January 20, 2009, though, it’s anyone’s guess…