Informed Speculation

The latest Quinnipiac poll gives more hope to the Republicans in a race that had been trending solidly Democratic:

In the hotly contested Ohio Senate race, U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic challenger, is on the up side of a 45 – 44 percent matchup with Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 11 percent of voters are undecided.

Women back Rep. Brown 48 – 40 percent, while men back Sen. DeWine 49 – 41 percent. DeWine gets 43 percent of independent voters to Brown’s 40 percent, a statistical tie. Among these independents voters, 17 percent are undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Relatively few voters say their choice stems from the candidates’ opposing positions on the war in Iraq. More voters cite other issues as the reason why they support a candidate. About one in five voters base their preference on Sen. DeWine’s support for, and Rep. Brown’s criticism of, President George W. Bush.

This race is very close and Sen. DeWine has a substantial opportunity to open up a lead, since 30 percent of voters don’t have a firm view of Rep. Brown while only 12 percent don’t know much about the incumbent,” said Peter Brown assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But the challenger has an edge because his voters say they are less likely to change their minds than are DeWine’s.”

This is going to be a fun couple of months…