I’m Calling B.S. On This One
I don’t buy this for a minute:
House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned.
The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker,” a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. “And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss.”
Most GOP lawmakers have stood by Hastert, pending a full airing of the facts in his handling of the Mark Foley affair, in which the former Florida representative was caught exchanging salacious messages with teen pages in Congress. The new polling data, however, suggests that many voters already have made up their minds.
The GOP source told FOX News that the internal data had not been widely shared among Republican leaders, but as awareness of it spreads calculations about Hastert’s tenure may change. The source described the pollster who did the survey as “authoritative,” and said once the numbers are presented, it “could change the focus” on whether the speaker remains in power.
While internal GOP polls show trouble for Republicans, the newest AP/Ipsos poll also showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be “very or extremely important” when it comes time to vote on Nov. 7. By nearly a 2-1 ratio, voters say Democrats are better at combating corruption.
Oh, really? A 50-seat loss? Well, that WILL be incredible…and if Hastert resigned today, only a 20-seat loss?
Goodness…that’s amazing stuff – particularly since “I trust Democrats more to handle corruption” won’t be appearing on the ballot.
Remember, folks – the Republicans may very well lose, but this has been a possibility for months, well before most people ever heard of Mark Foley. People don’t vote for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat – they vote for specific candidates. Does the Foley scandal make a Democratic takeover more likely? Yes, marginally…but at the levels speculated on here, and with the resignation of Dennis Hastert as the ‘hinge’?
No sale…
I’ll wach the actual polls of the districts.
I see Allen is cruising.
Looks like webb brought a knife to a gunfight. and I was deeply offended by the use of ‘macacawitz’, after I finished laughing at the creatvity one must exercise to be a hypocrite.
[...] Mark Coffey rightly views the polls with a grain of salt: [...]
[...] Mark Coffey rightly views the polls with a grain of salt: [...]
My intuition tells me the same, Mark. I think the harm’s done. It may have cost the GOP some more seats had the incident not occurred, but Hastert’s resignation wouldn’t save more than a couple of seats.
It’s going to be hard to pin the Foley slime solely on the republican leadership for the new page’s that are coming forward. Seems the barn door has been open since 1998. One of the latest to make accuations is from the class of 1998 and another from the class of 2000. Weren’t the democrats somehow involved or have members in the house since 1998 or have they been asleep all this time.
didn’t realize anyone in leadership was worried about holding his seat.
if it doesn’t affect them locally, then I sincerely doubt a national affect.
“yes I have a low opinion of congress, but I like my guy”
might explain how incumbents can still have a 50% approval, while congress is in the low 30%.
or for global warming fans-the polls that are being run a like saying the average global temp is drastically below normal, but no one is going to get dressed based on this info, they’ll simply look at their own ‘local’ thermometer.
Reynolds in NY.
Watching his numbers may prove to be key. I saw Bill Kyrstal reporting that since the scandal, gop numbers have goen up in foley’s neighboring district. (but he seemed to be choking back the tears as he said it.)
here’s a reynolds link to surveyusa poll.
http://www.wgrz.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=41630
Yes he is now trailing. No, he has not lost any support. He remains steady at 45%, consistent with his sept #. The difference is that the green party candidate was forced out, and their support, 8%, has shifted to the dem. I take surveyusa with a grain of salt…but by their system, there has been no drop-off in support of a key house leader implicated in scandal.
Foleygate (Open) Must-Read List
Worst October Surprise, Ever – Patrick Godfrey, The American Thinker; Nothing New Under the Sun – Dean Barnett, Townhall; Democrats’ Plan to Out Gay Republicans – Rush Limbaugh, RushLimbaugh.com…
[...] Here’s what I said less than a week after the story broke, in the midst of an insider campaign to get rid of Hastert that featured supposed internal poll numbers saying that Hasterts fate would be the difference between a 20-seat and a 50-seat pickup for the Democrats: Remember, folks – the Republicans may very well lose, but this has been a possibility for months, well before most people ever heard of Mark Foley. People don’t vote for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat – they vote for specific candidates. Does the Foley scandal make a Democratic takeover more likely? Yes, marginally…but at the levels speculated on here, and with the resignation of Dennis Hastert as the ‘hinge’? [...]