GOP Fortunes Improving?
Dick Morris says the election has gone back into the toss-up pile:
The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.
With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look possible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.
Here’s the evidence:
* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.
* Zogby reports a “turnaround” in New Jersey’s Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.
* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he’ll probably still lose.
* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana’s Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.
* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He’d been at 48 percent.)
Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.
But hold the phone; this is the same Dick Morris that said, in yesterday’s NY Post:
WITH only two weeks left ’til Election Day, Republicans won’t save themselves with phony optimism – pathetic claims that, somehow, they’re mounting a comeback. They need to sound a note of alarm and fill the airwaves with specifics of exactly what will happen if the Democrats triumph. But inside-baseball talk about a Nancy Pelosi speakership won’t do the job. The GOP needs to focus on the concrete ways in which a Democratic victory would threaten our safety.
Here’s one possible ad: We see and hear a wiretapped conversation, with a terrorist revealing his worst plans to his associate – and, inadvertently, to government eavesdroppers, too. Then, when he’s about to spill the beans on when and where the next attack is going to come, the line should go dead, with a dial tone, with a machine voice saying “This wiretap terminated in the name of privacy rights by the Democratic U.S. Congress.”
The announcer can then say, “If the Democrats win, the National Security Agency will never be able to listen in as the terrorists are plotting to attack us.”
Republicans are doomed unless they can get their base back. But the GOP base is the best informed group of voters in the nation, with educational levels consistently higher than their Democratic counterparts’. They follow politics closely and are the easiest voters to reach via the news media, cable TV and talk radio.
A message like this could have a snowballing effect on the Republican base. The word could percolate through the clutter, reminding voters of their true priorities.
Otherwise, we know what is going to happen. All the borderline GOP incumbents will lose, while Democrats like Sen. Bob Menendez, a scandal waiting to happen, survive.
So, have the Republicans adopted Morris’s advice, retroactively, through some sort of manipulation of the space/time continuum, and energized the base with his message in time to influence polls that have already concluded?
Or is Morris blowing smoke out of his…posterior?
Talk of a Republican comeback is as premature as talk of a Democratic wave…let’s see which way the wind is blowing about next Thursday or so…
If Saddam is executed on Nov 5, which would be Saturday afternoon, US time, this election is over.
It allows for a Sunday afternoon Presidential address discussing the fate of tyrants and dictators. The media will flooded with images of Iraqis dancing in the street, at least the shia and kurdish streets.
Monday there will still be time for democrats to say ‘yes, but…”(to one of the most dramatic moments in world history).
Tuesday the gop retains.
I have been stunned that the media has downplayed the pending execution, and the force it will exert on Iraq. It is a point where things can get better, or worse-but it is extremely relevant to the discussing the focus of the (shia)govt, between dealing with the militias and the sunni baathists.
They won’t disband the militias, if they are providing protection against sunnis. The cathartic moment of saddam’s death will likely provide the vent for the shia. If the sunni rxn is in the form of an offensive, the militas grow. If the sunni give up, saddam is still their only percieved hope, Iraq might just fall into place.
The execution is agruably more important than any vote that has taken place, but the impact can only help bush and the gop.
mtl, isn’t November 5th the date for the verdict to be announced? I’m not sure when the execution would be, if that is the punishment handed down, but it wouldn’t be the same day, would it?
if some are hoping for a delay in the execution, maliki is a shiite. Not to execute Saddam, would be the ultimate act of weakness, and a politcally unsurvivable mistake.
I guess he has his priorites, but after the execution he will have a lot more legitimacy to deal with the militias. If no change has occured by the time baker’s report comes out, it will be welcome/if things do change it may become irelevant.
mark-
the press really has failed to cover it as an event, so I am ‘slightly’ speculating.
It was the Iraqi oj simpson case times 100. a lot of the disatisfaction the shia have right now is that he is still alive. Iraq is a powderkeg, and this execution might blow out the fires or ignite some of the most signifcant fighting yet.
Once the verdict is read, why keep him alive another day?
This is going down middle-eastern style, with the exception of it being a hanging, as opposed to a beheading. Instant justice-after a lengthy and fair trial.
This column reminds me why Morris still gets taken seriously. His prognostication skills are typical to what you see in Washington (lousy) and I wouldn’t bet my lunch, much less the farm on Morris’s prediction du jour. Still, if I was in charge of the Republican Party I would definately open up the party wallet and produce his proposed wiretape attack ad pronto.
This week’s Barrons predicts that the GOP will retain both houses — but they base their analysis on how much money each candidate has, not where the polling is — e.g., they predict Kean and Burns victories –
Well, Rasmussen, as of last Friday, has Burns only down by two points, a statistical tie, and Menendez leads only by three, so a tie again. And in New Jersey, neither candidate has over 45% decided in their favor, which makes the election still very much in play.
All-in-all, there are five “toss-ups” — TN, MO, and VA are the others — and the way I see it, a toss-up is a win for the GOP candidate, not just due to hollow optimism, but to the fact that the GOP’s get-out-the-vote machine is superior to that of the Dems. The House is most likely lost, though.
And I’ve still got my fingers crossed on Maryland.
Tn, mo, va are in the bag…
I still think the gop will win at least one of the following:
RI, MT, OH, PA.
The dems won’t win the senate. They have to win six of the above states.
Tn is done.
The national media telling the people of tn that they are racists for laughing at the ford ad-call me ad won’t go over well in the state.
I’m watching bob herbert and mike barnicle , two guys from the north, project their beliefs on the south. Ford had a chance so long as the national party stayed away. Now they are going to try and use it as another wellstone rally, nationally.
gay marriage on the ballot in tn,
and nj is about to legally recognize(I’m guessing) gay marriage, by judical fiat.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/10/new_jersey_same_1.html
In a year when the Detroit Tigers are in the World Series, all things are possible.
who is the jimmy Leyland of the democratic party?
I wish they had one.
Interesting article by John Podhoretz on this same subject: http://www.nypost.com/seven/10242006/postopinion/opedcolumnists/battling_predictions_opedcolumnists_john_podhoretz.htm?page=0
Here’s what I think. I’m not worried about the Senate. I haven’t been in quite some time. Unless the Democrats have another Mark Foley up their sleeves, they just don’t have the numbers. They’re going to lose in TN, and VA. Bet the house on those two. And probably MO. But let’s say I’m wrong about MO. That only gives them MO, RI, MT, OH, and PA. By my count that’s five. The Dems need six. And if they really think they’re going five-for-five, they’re dreaming. Winning percentages like that almost never happen.
The House continues to look better. Mark Foley’s seat looks like it may not be lost after all, according to polls. And here in IN, we have a stunner coming up in a district that’s totally off the map (not even listed by anyone as “in play”). Republican Eric Dickerson (no, not THAT Eric Dickerson) leads incumbent Democrat Julia Carson for IN-7 in the latest poll. He has all the momentum in this race. Mark this one down as a probable Republican TAKEOVER. It may be the only one in the House, but that’s one more the Dems need to come up with. It’s close. I think the House still leans Dem, but only by a whisker.
Yeah, I saw the JPod article, too…I’m not saying that Morris and JPod are wrong; there is a swing back to Republicans, at least a little, I think. But Morris is all over the map, and given the juxtaposition of the vote.com article and the NY Sun article, a day apart, I can’t put much stock in anything he has to say at this point…
Mark,
Despite me pointing out both articles, I tend to agree with you. Morris is definitely all over the map, and Podhoretz seems overly optimistic to me. But, I do think that there has been ebb and flow for the Republicans for quite some time, and there was definitely ebb after Mark Foley (ok, maybe ebb isn’t strong enough), and now they’re back to flow. Is it going to be enough of a flow? Ask me in two weeks. Right now I have the House at a 17-18 seat pickup for the Dems, and that has them winning nearly all the seats that are “statistical ties” which seems unlikely, especially considering they trail in money in just about every one of those races. However, without high Republican turnout in at least a few of those districts, 18 seats is very achievable. And it’s also possible that there are some unknown Dem pickups out there to counter-balance IN-7. So, at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dems only pickup 13, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 23. I think that’s most likely the range you’ll be looking at come November 7. Forget the articles that say 40 or even 50. I’d be absolutely stunned if that turned out to be the case.
morris couldn’t get clinton 50% of the vote in 96, despite Clinton’s esteemed charm, so I sincerely doubt morris’ political accumen.
He reads the same polls we do.
Whichever party loses the House, the party leadership (up to and including the national chair) should resign.
Why? I’ll pick on the Republicans first.
Your assets: A booming economy, the Dow at record levels, a better ground game, and no terrorist attacks on American soil since 9/11. If you can’t hold onto Congress with those assets, then you’re obviously incompetent. As a matter of fact, you should be looking at picking up a Senate seat or two, and losing at most 5 in the House.
Democrats, your assets: An unpopular President from the opposition party, voter dissatisfaction with Republicans in general, an unpopular war, Mark Foley, and the mainstream media. If you can’t take Congress with those assets, then you’re just as incompetent as the Republican leadership. You should be looking at gains of 25+ seats in the house and 8+ seats in the Senate.
Now you might think that both parties have such strong assets that they’re using them effectively defensively against the other party’s offense. Any detailed look at this campaign season will demonstrate that we’re looking at two inept offenses, not two strong defenses, however.
However, I hold my strongest criticism for the Libertarians.
Voter dissatisfaction with Congress and both parties is at near all time highs. The percentage of people calling themselves “independent” are at near all time highs. Any viable third party should be able to pick up between 10 and 50 seats in the House and even 2-3 seats in the Senate. You might be tempted to blame gerrymandering for some of this, but I don’t know of ANY national race that Libertarians are even polling in second place. And if the Democrats can pick up seats in gerrymandered Republican districts, it ought to be even easier for Libertarians. The fact that we’re barely even hearing about the Libertarians this cycle is disgusting. The party should disband, because they’re obviously beyond hope.
Michael Barone has the Dems picking up sixteen seats and STILL doesn’t include IN-7 anywhere on his list. I still maintain that this has a very good chance of being a Republican takeover. That makes it 15 seats, which is exactly what the Dems need. A slip-up anywhere gives the House back to the Republicans.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/archives/061024/the_house_elect.htm
Chris, good points about the Libertarians which goes as well for any independent party.
mtl: “I have been stunned that the media has downplayed the pending execution, and the force it will exert on Iraq.” Surely you didn’t expect the MSM to concede Bush a platform for saying “I got Saddam” did’ya?
Actually, while it seems shortsighted on their part to not bring the issue up and spin it down, away from Bush, the MSM is in a ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’ situation. They can only hope that the events following the verdict will allow them to drown out any positive spin for Bush. That comports with their gameplan as noted by ABC’s Halprin. Bu then again, it’ll be another resounding nail in the coffin that was liberal bias in MSM. Bwhahaha
if the sunnis are going to make a run at tet, they have to do it before saddam dies.
two plans they could take: free saddam by force or-
the one that is getting ready to go down, stage a massive kidnapping for the purose of serving as hostages. They’ll either start collecting individual soldiers, or try to take a group of high value us/iraqi assets in one swoop.
My bet is on the latter, maybe a play for sistani or even maliki. something big is coming down the pipe.