My Senate Predictions
Okay, enough playing it coy. At some point, you have to put up or shut up. Here are the official Decision ‘08 predictions for the 2006 ‘vulnerable’ Senate races (note that these are not my preferred outcomes, but the ones that I think will happen – i.e., these are predictions, not endorsements).
CT- Lieberman by 7.5%
VA – Allen by 2%
NJ – Menendez by 1.5%
MO- Talent by 1%
MD – Cardin by 3.5%
AZ – Kyle by 7%
MI – Stabenow by 9%
MT – Tester by 5%
OH – Brown by 12%
PA – Casey by 6%
RI – Whitehouse by 4%
TN – Corker by 5%
If my math is right, and assuming my predictions are correct (but what a big assumption THAT is!), that means the Democrats don’t get their six, but at +4, come up just shy of Senate control…however, in VA, TN, and MO, if the predictions of a ‘wave’ election come true, any or all of those three races could tip to the Dem side.
Nevertheless, that’s my prediction: Dems + 4 in the Senate…
I think 4 is starting to be the the actual number as well.
Still think there will be a surprise in md or mt, and I concur that the the pa race will be closer than polls indicate, but also accept that it is probably not enough.
You might want to rethink New Jersey. The front page of today’s NY Times has a lengthy and damning article about Menendez, which could well swing the election the other way.
Now only if Bruce Springsteen could come out of hibernation and do an emergency benefit for the Democrats — or better yet, run for the seat — at least he’s more musical than Orren Hatch –
Peter, I definitely agree that, of the seats I gave to the Dems, NJ is the most likely to be a Republican upset…
I know it seems like a long shot, but don’t write Linc Chafee off in RI.
Whitehouse is not well-liked and has a tremendous capacity for alienating people.
I still think Md is a better shot than nj. we’ll, see…I think it will pan out in the election.
Kean and chafee…I’m not saying kean is the next chafee, but he might even exceed him. The things I accept for caucus vote. I keep hearing about a fiscal conservative with northeastern liberal streak being a viable candidate, like say…rudy.
but chafee and kean?
Mark,
Here’s your list with the appropriate corrections.
CT- Lieberman by 15%
VA – Allen by 2%
NJ – Kean by 1%
MO- Talent by 1%
MD – Steele by 3.5%
AZ – Kyle by 7%
MI – Bouchard by 2%
MT – Tester by 1%
OH – Brown by 6%
PA – Casey by 2%
RI – Chafee by 2%
TN – Corker by 2%
I’ll expect a hat tip on Nov. 8.
I hope you’re right, but I just don’t see Steele in particular pulling off Maryland…
I’m thinking MT should get more consideration.
How do you conduct a poll in montana, with smoke signals?
I’ll have to agree with jwest with regards to Steele. Mark, you stick a fork in a still kickin’ Steele at your risk. One thing that comes to mind is the inverse of the 15% rule vis a vis polling for black candidates would apply here. The dems are used to losing only 10% of Blacks to the GOP.
To statisically lose 40+% to Steele along with the undecideds puts Cardin at a palpable disadvantage.
As for Santorum, he deserves to lose for throwing the base overboard in order to support Spectre. I have yet to recall anyone making that linkage.
I’ll buy the notion that Menendez is losing the race. He started off with the advantage of incumbency and has steadily eroded his lead. If we had another month, he’d be trailing double-digits.
Ohio is a mess and the GOPs deserve whatever misfortunes is heaped. It will be well worth it if the Ohio GOP, led by Blkackwell, rebuild from scratch starting with a “Contract with Ohio”.
Stabenow is a goner. Her base is Detroit, which is deep in Kwame’s pocket, however, I don’t think they’re getting out to vote. They had the chance to get rid of Kwame last time after all of his thuggerism and wound up keeping him, after a 3 way split that saw him barely get 40% that became barely 50% after the run-off. Oakland Co on the other hand will get out the vote for Bouchard. The governorship is probably still in the Canuck’s grasp, but then again, the UP and Eastern Counties may give her the boot. Another thot is that if Stabenow loses by double-digits, say 15%, Conyers and even Levin will start sweating.
CT- Lieberman by 10% (R+0.5)
VA – Allen by 4%
NJ – Kean by 2% (R+1)
MO- Talent by 2%
MD – Steele by 3% (R+1)
AZ – Kyl by 9%
MI – Stabenow by 4%
MT – Burns by 1%
OH – Brown by 8% (D+1)
PA – Casey by 4% (D+1)
RI – Whitehouse by 3% (D+0.5)
TN – Corker by 6%
Senate balance 54 R, 44 D, 2 I
Whitehouse will hardly be worse than Chafee, and Joe will probably get a bit closer to us, though still caucusing with the Dems. Santorum’s got Mo, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough. I won’t be shocked if he pulls it off, though I expect him to come up short. I’m feeling much more optimistic about Maryland and possibly Michigan, and a bit less so about New Jersey.
If the national mood were really so anti-Republican (based almost exclusively on Iraq according to the narrative), Lieberman wouldn’t be walloping Ned Lamont. There’s your bellweather right there. No need to look to the Show Me state to see if the Republicans will hold the Senate. Lieberman’s certain reelection tells you they’ll hold.
Election Prediction Contest
With one week left until the 2006 election, time for you pundits to roll out the predictions. Give your election prediction for Republican pickups or losses in the House, Senate, and Governorships.
[...] …+19 Dems House, +4 Dems Senate…sounds familiar… [...]