Tea-Leaf Reading
For what it’s worth, I’m not seeing hopeful portents. Fox News is reporting soft voting in Republican areas of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, Mehlman seemed uncharacteristically ‘off’ today, and TradeSports margins are widening – towards the Dems…
Call me a pessimist, and please prove me wrong…
Mark: If there were only three states in this election with week Rep turnout, the three states you mention would be the ones I would expect. Reps are getting massacred in both the US Senate race and Governor race in NY, and are trailing badly in both the Penn Senate and Ohio Governor race. DeWine is the only major Rep candidate in the three states who has a chance of losing by less than five percentage points (and I’m still pretty sure he’ll lose). Wait to see what turnout is like in Virginia and Missouri before wailing and gnashing your teeth.
Hi Mark,
Are you sure those are tea leaves you are reading?
[Do they leave a gooey resin on your fingers?]
Might be spin, but RNC is reporting turn-out higher than in ’04.
Watched CNN against my will this afternoon (it was on at my health club), and here were just two subsequent headlines during just one hour period:
- Bush Sinking GOP’s Chances
- Republicans in Peril
As usual, no cites given to support their headlines, just the usual hack reporters opining at will. Juan Williams was right when he said last week that CNN is completely in the tank for the Dems. It would be worth it just to see the smug reporter’s faces start twitching on camera over there if their predictions went awry.
webb is getting killed.
It is early, with 100k in, maybe 5% of total, but he’s beating him by 18pts. Allen’s strongest support is in western va, so he expects to finish strong. If Webb doesn’t get a 10pt lead, to hold onto, it’s over.
I’m still sitting on my board, waiting for the wave…
looks tepid out here.
dems, +1. IN-8.
Voted this morning. Only had to wait four or five minutes to get the ballot. Two years ago it was 20-25 minutes. What a difference. I will add that Graves is not up against any real competition. The only real race in this area is Talent – McCaskill. It will all come down to turnout.
Not wailing and gnashing my teeth, my friend…calling it as I see it.
As I said yesterday, I’ve internalized a huge loss, so I’m not going to jump off a bridge…but RNC spin aside, I’m just not seeing any positive signs…
I think the big cards are RI, MD, TN, VA…MO will trail in finishing, but the senate is going to say a lot more about polling’s accuracy…
I think by 9:30 two will be called.
I think one of the brighter points, if you are a dem, is getting bernie sanders. If nothing else this guy will be one of the most articulate thorn’s in the side of the gop, and especially bush. He will vault to leadership…if not in committee, at least in the sense of representing the dems.
The maalox I have been drinking the past three days is 50% attributable to his impending ascendancy.
santorum, gone.
+1 dems senate, +1 dems house.
nj…over.
no shocker, lautenberg won after a one month campaign replacing toricelli. IT is a pipe dream.
dewine, down.
Hi again Mark,
Would you mind sharing some of that tea. [It is the tea with the gooey resin isn’t it?]
Sure, I’ll ship some gooey resin tea out today…