Informed Speculation

…and I’m not talking about Iraq.  First, Hamas makes it clear that it is perfectly content to let the Palestinian people suffer rather than give Israel the barest shred of compromise:

The ruling Islamic group Hamas said on Tuesday a planned Palestinian unity government would not recognize Israel or accept a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict as demanded by Israel and the United States.

The stance could undercut Palestinian efforts to ease an eight-month-old Western economic boycott by forming a unity cabinet more acceptable to the West.

The United States and its partners in the Quartet of Middle East mediators imposed the boycott to pressure Hamas, which took control of the Authority in March, to recognize Israel’s right to exist, renounce violence and accept existing peace deals.

Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said the program of the proposed unity government between Hamas and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah faction “will not recognize Israel and will not include accepting the two-state solution.”

“We reject the two-state solution, which is the vision of U.S. President George Bush, because it represents a clear recognition of Israel,” Barhoum said.

“Our position in this regard remains unchanged. We reject joining in any government that recognizes Israel.”

Abbas needs to take on Hamas, head-on, decisively, once and for all, but he hasn’t the stomach for it.  Therefore, for Israel, it’s full-speed ahead on Sharon’s disengagement plan…

Iran, meanwhile, shows Hamas that two can play the bullheaded ignorance game:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday said Iran would soon celebrate completion of its controversial nuclear fuel program.

“With the wisdom and resistance of the nation, today our position has stabilized. I’m very hopeful that we will be able to hold the big celebration of Iran’s full nuclearization in the current year,” the hard-line president told reporters during a news conference.

Iran’s current calendar year ends on March 20.

Ahmadinejad also claimed that the international community was caving in to Tehran’s demands to continue its nuclear program.

“Initially, they [the U.S. and its allies] were very angry. The reason was clear: They basically wanted to monopolize nuclear power in order to rule the world and impose their will on nations,” Ahmadinejad said.

“Today, they have finally agreed to live with a nuclear Iran, with an Iran possessing nuclear fuel cycle,” he said, without elaborating.

With the U.S. effectively neutered because of Iraq and the elections, it may be up to Israel again here.  Air strikes probably will be ineffective, probably will inflame tensions to the breaking point, and yet will probably be necessary.

Hezbollah makes it a trifecta:

The Western-backed government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora will soon be ousted and replaced by a “clean” cabinet, the leader of pro-Syrian Hezbollah was quoted on Tuesday as saying.

But Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah tried to ease fears that Lebanon was sliding toward chaos amid a deepening political crisis, saying Hezbollah would preserve the country’s stability.

Six ministers from Hezbollah and its allies resigned from the cabinet after the collapse at the weekend of all-party talks on the pro-Syrian camp’s demand for a cabinet reshuffle that would give them effective veto power.

“This government will go,” Nasrallah was quoted by As-Safir newspaper as telling supporters at a meeting on Monday. “We have no links to it after the resignation.

“There will be a new government,” he said, adding that Siniora’s government had “zero credibility”.

Nasrallah said a “clean government” would come to rebuild Lebanon from the ruins of Hezbollah’s war with Israel in July and August.

Al-Akhbar newspaper reported that Nasrallah had told the crowd that Hezbollah had so far spent $300 million in cash aid to those who lost their homes in the war, in which about 15,000 homes were destroyed and 30,000 others were damaged.

It said the group’s chief said the money came from Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Can anything possibly illustrate more fully the complete impotence of the United Nations? Not only is Hezbollah not disarmed, not only are the Israeli soldiers still in captivity, but Hezbollah is openly telegraphing its intentions to mount a coup!

It used to be that the United States could be counted on to tackle these crises…but now I fear we lack the political will (and possibly the means).  So once again, it comes to Israel.

Three genuine catatostrophes in the making…and one little state between the world and disaster.  When Sharon sank into that coma, we lost more than we ever knew…