Informed Speculation

…though whether Hezbollah and Syria can throw up enough obstructions to prevent it is still in the air:

The agreement by the U.N. and the Lebanese government, announced last week by Annan, would create a tribunal outside Lebanon with a majority of international judges and an international prosecutor. Annan said having more international than Lebanese judges would help ensure the tribunal’s independence.

With the Security Council’s approval, it will now be up to the Lebanese government to make the final decision on establishing the tribunal.

Anti-Syrian Prime Minister Fuad Saniora’s government is under intense pressure from Hezbollah, which has close ties to Syria and Iran, to give them more power or face street protests. Saniora’s Council of Ministers approved the tribunal plan on Nov. 13 but pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud has challenged the ministers’ decision.

At the same time the council approved the tribunal, it adopted a France-drafted statement condemning Gemayel’s killing and calling him “a symbol of freedom and of the political independence of Lebanon.”

France’s U.N. Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sabliere called the assassination “an attempt to destabilize Lebanon” and warned: “There will be no peace without justice in Lebanon.”

Bolton stressed that the dual actions by the Security Council of approving the tribunal and condemning Gemayel’s assassination sent “an important signal … in support of the democratic forces in Lebanon.”

Both Russia and Qatar _ the only Arab member of the Security Council _ had raised questions about the constitutionality of the agreement to establish the tribunal because of the differences between the prime minister and president. But the council agreed Monday that any constitutional issues should be decided by the Lebanese government _ not the United Nations.

Qatar’s U.N. Ambassador Nassir Al-Nasser agreed to support the letter to Annan authorizing the tribunal but sent a separate letter to the council president insisting that the agreement meet the requirements of Lebanon’s constitution, including approval by Lebanon’s president and parliament.

“The draft agreement and the statute of the Special Tribunal will not come into force until all such constitutional requirements are met,” Al-Nasser wrote in the letter. 

Though it is true that events are still too fresh to pinpoint the powers behind the assassination, when one considers the circumstances, there is a strong – very strong – presumption that Syria is deeply involved…