Informed Speculation

Here is the STRATFOR summary of yesterday’s murder in Lebanon:

Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was killed Nov. 21 in a Beirut neighborhood where a pro-Syrian party is known to have a large presence. As Gemayel was an outspoken critic of Hezbollah and a member of Lebanon’s anti-Syrian movement, Syrian intelligence likely staged the shooting as part of an intimidation strategy to keep the lid on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Hezbollah will use the momentum generated by the Gemayel assassination to further its plans to plunge Lebanon into a constitutional crisis.

The Wall Street Journal, echoing a point I made yesterday, puts the tragedy in the context of increasing calls to involve Syria in our plans for Iraq:

It’s true that every Administration must deal with the world as it is. But when it comes to Syria, do the sages of the Iraq Study Group really want the Bush Administration to seek the benediction of a country that stirs such mayhem in Beirut?