Informed Speculation

There is no more dangerous idea in the air right now than the notion that we must bring Syria and Iran into our planning for Iraq.  Three stories today illustrate the folly of this notion.  First, take heed of what the Iranian Supreme Leader had to say about Iraq:

Iran’s supreme leader on Tuesday blamed the United States for the chaos in Iraq and called for the withdrawal of foreign forces, but also pledged Tehran’s help, saying it was a “religious and humanitarian” duty.

In a meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the United States of hiring terrorists and former members of Saddam Hussein’s regime to destabilize Iraq, according to a state television report.

“The first step to resolve the instability in Iraq is the withdrawal of occupiers from this country and the transfer of security responsibilities to the popular Iraqi government,” Khamenei was quoted as saying.

So we are openly accused by the supporter of terrorists of supporting terrorists.  Want proof?

A senior American intelligence official said Monday that the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah had been training members of the Mahdi Army, the Iraqi Shiite militia led by Moktada al-Sadr.

The official said that 1,000 to 2,000 fighters from the Mahdi Army and other Shiite militias had been trained by Hezbollah in Lebanon. A small number of Hezbollah operatives have also visited Iraq to help with training, the official said.

Iran has facilitated the link between Hezbollah and the Shiite militias in Iraq, the official said. Syrian officials have also cooperated, though there is debate about whether it has the blessing of the senior leaders in Syria.

The intelligence official spoke on condition of anonymity under rules set by his agency, and discussed Iran’s role in response to questions from a reporter.

The interview occurred at a time of intense debate over whether the United States should enlist Iran’s help in stabilizing Iraq. The Iraq Study Group, directed by James A. Baker III, a former Republican secretary of state, and Lee H. Hamilton, a former Democratic lawmaker, is expected to call for direct talks with Tehran.

The claim about Hezbollah’s role in training Shiite militias could strengthen the hand of those in the Bush administration who oppose a major new diplomatic involvement with Iran.

The new American account is consistent with a claim made in Iraq this summer by a mid-level Mahdi commander, who said his militia had sent 300 fighters to Lebanon, ostensibly to fight alongside Hezbollah. “They are the best-trained fighters in the Mahdi Army,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The specific assertions about Iran’s role went beyond those made publicly by senior American officials, though Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, did tell Congress this month that “the Iranian hand is stoking violence” in Iraq.

The American intelligence on Hezbollah was based on human sources, electronic means and interviews with detainees captured in Iraq.

American officials say the Iranians have also provided direct support to Shiite militias in Iraq, including explosives and trigger devices for roadside bombs, and training for several thousand fighters, mostly in Iran. The training is carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, they say.

In Congressional testimony this month, General Hayden said he was initially skeptical of reports of Iran’s role but changed his mind after reviewing intelligence reports.

“I’ll admit personally,” he said at one point in the hearing, “that I have come late to this conclusion, but I have all the zeal of a convert as to the ill effect that the Iranians are having on the situation in Iraq.”

Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, offered a similar assessment in his testimony.

…In the interview on Monday, the senior intelligence official was asked for further details about the purported Iranian role.

“They have been a link to Lebanese Hezbollah and have helped facilitate Hezbollah training inside of Iraq, but more importantly Jaish al-Mahdi members going to Lebanon,” the official said, describing Iran’s role and using the Arabic name for the Mahdi Army.

The official said the Hezbollah training had been conducted with the knowledge of Mr. Sadr, the most influential Shiite cleric.

While Iran wants a stable Iraq, the official said, it sees an advantage in “managed instability in the near term” to bog down the American military and defeat the Bush administration’s objectives in the region.

“There seems to have been a strategic decision taken sometime over late winter or early spring by Damascus, Tehran, along with their partners in Lebanese Hezbollah, to provide more support to Sadr to increase pressure on the U.S.,” the American intelligence official said.

And in case there were any doubt as to the worldview of our new ‘partners in peace’:

Iran, which disputes that Jews were slaughtered by the Nazis, is to hold a conference next month to allow historians to clarify “hidden angles” of the Holocaust, the foreign ministry has revealed.

The December 11 and 12 international gathering aims to “create opportunities … for a suitable scientific research so the hidden and unhidden angles of this most important political issue of the 20th century become more transparent,” said a statement on the Iranian foreign ministry’s website.

Iran’s fiercely anti-Israeli regime is supportive of so-called Holocaust revisionists, who maintain that the systematic slaughter by the Nazis of mainland Europe’s Jews and other groups during World War II was either invented or exaggerated.

I’m not on the fence on this issue.  The U.S. position should be clear: NO role for Iran and Syria until (a) they shut off the activities of financing and expediting terror, both in Iraq and elsewhere, (b) Syria forces Hezbollah to disarm and cooperates with the Hariri tribunal, and (c) Iran gives up its nuclear program.

Any talks should be conditional on solid proof of progress on all three fronts…