Informed Speculation

Throughout the day, I’m going to use this post to record my thoughts as I read through the report.  Feel free to add your own in the comments.

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The Executive Summary of the report contains the following:

The Iraqi government should accelerate assuming responsibility for Iraqi security by increasing the number and quality of Iraqi Army brigades. While this process is under way, and to facilitate it, the United States should significantly increase the number of U.S. military personnel, including combat troops, imbedded in and supporting Iraqi Army units. As these actions proceed, U.S. combat forces could begin to move out of Iraq. The primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq should evolve to one of supporting the Iraqi army, which would take over primary responsibility for combat operations. By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq. At that time, U.S. combat forces in Iraq could be deployed only in units embedded with Iraqi forces, in rapid-reaction and special operations teams, and in training, equipping, advising, force protection, and search and rescue…

This is what is known as Iraqification (after the Vietnam War’s Vietnamization).  It wasn’t particularly successful then, as we know.  What makes us think it will be successful now?

For certain, we must pull our troops at some point…I’m just unsure as to whether this recommendation in its current form is realistic…

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From the introduction to section one, Assessments:

Iraq is vital to regional and even global stability, and is critical to U.S. interests. It runs along the sectarian fault lines of Shia and Sunni Islam, and of Kurdish and Arab populations. It has the world’s second-largest known oil reserves. It is now a base of operations for international terrorism, including al Qaeda.

Iraq is a centerpiece of American foreign policy, influencing how the United States is viewed in the region and around the world. Because of the gravity of Iraq’s condition and the country’s vital importance, the United States is facing one of its most difficult and significant international challenges in decades. Because events in Iraq have been set in motion by American decisions and actions, the United States has both a national and a moral interest in doing what it can to give Iraqis an opportunity to avert anarchy.

That’s a pretty good summary of why Iraq matters…

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Here’s what the report says about civilian casualties: ‘Some 3,000 Iraqi civilians are killed every month.’ But the Lancet study said it was 500-700 per day! Oh, dear, that report just does’t get any respect, does it?

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On the subject of the Iraqi police, the report is blistering:

Iraqi police cannot control crime, and they routinely engage in sectarian violence, including the unnecessary detention, torture, and targeted execution of Sunni Arab civilians. The police are organized under the Ministry of the Interior, which is confronted by corruption and militia infiltration and lacks control over police in the provinces.