Is McCain Unstoppable?
Robert Novak thinks he just might be:
Some 30 invited corporate representatives and other lobbyists gathered at the Phoenix Park Hotel on Capitol Hill Tuesday morning to hear two senior mainstream Republican senators pitch the 2008 presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain. They were selling him to establishment Republicans as the establishment’s candidate. Nothing could be further from McCain’s guerrilla-style presidential run in 2000 that nearly stopped George W. Bush.
Invitations to Tuesday’s event were sent by Trent Lott, the newly elected Senate minority whip. Over coffee, Lott and Sen. Pat Roberts pushed McCain, though neither previously was seen as a McCainiac. They were not for McCain in 2000, and neither were the assembled party activists.
It is beginning to look like “McCain, Inc.” — that is, party regulars, corporate officials and Washington lawyers and lobbyists moving toward John McCain, the man it feared and loathed eight years ago. The GOP, abhorring competition and detesting surprises, likes to establish its presidential nominee well in advance.
What about the others? Romney, Rudy, etc?
Ideological conservatives are not happy about McCain’s ascendancy, and bemoan a vacuum on the right. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is trying to run to McCain’s right, but his past liberal positions on abortion and gay rights get in the way. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore and former Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating are testing prospects of filling the vacuum, but the required fund-raising will be daunting.
Actually, McCain’s danger may be on his left, if former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is able to get New Hampshire independents to vote for him in a Republican primary as they did for McCain in 2000. But Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000 each lost New Hampshire and recovered elsewhere as incorporated juggernauts. McCain, with that configuration, will be hard to stop.
If McCain runs against Hillary, he can win…but if it’s Hillary/Obama? I’m not so sure…
Mark,
Do you really think people will vote for her based on who’s in the Veep spot?
Colin,
Not a lot, but maybe enough to swing a close election.
Not if Hillary is as unappealing against someone like McCain as I think she is. That, however, is nothing more than personal opinion right now, and although borne out by polls, it is too early to put too much weight in them.
Well, if Obama is the VP, he brings instant ‘buzz’ to the campaign, and a lot of VERY favorable media coverage…
True, but the conventional wisdom is that the VP never gains votes; he (or she) can only lose them.
Dukakis’s numbers went up by 1 point after Bentsen slaughtered Dan Quayle ’88 VP debate.
Yeah, but political geeks like you and me pay attention to the substance of debates…Obama is FAR more charismatic than Lloyd Bentsen…
I guess that leads to the question of who could McCain choose as his Veep to counter to Obama phenomenon? This applies to the other candidates as well (Rudy, Romney), but since we’re talking about McCain, any ideas?
Here’s a wacky idea: McCain/Gingrich…it would bring the conservatives on board for a McCain nomination (or at least make it more palatable).
But I don’t really think it would be a good idea; it would also alienate any swing moderates, and Gingrich still carries a lot of baggage…
McCain has had some very good things to say about Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota lately, going so far as to call him “one of the future leaders of the Republican Party”. They’ve had a couple closed-door meetings lately as well. So some people I’ve talked to think that he will be McCain’s top VP choice. He’s also young and charismatic and while I think that electing John McCain would be one of the best things in the history of this country….he is neither young nor incredibly charismatic.
Hey, I’m hoping for a Giuliani-Gingrich ticket myself, Mark. Although, pairing him with Mike Huckabee or Mark Sanford is more likely.
Good point about Pawlenty, Patrick. With him in 2nd place on the GOP ticket and the 2008 Convention in St. Paul, it might be enough to push Minnesota into the Red state column in 2008.
I wouldn’t be opposed to a McCain/Gingrich ticket, but since McCain is having to move to the right in order to shore up his credentials for the primaries, he’s already going to lose some independent and moderate support anyway (though I don’t think it would be enough to cost him the general election). However, with Gingrich on board, it might be.
For the record, however, I think that McCain/Guiliani would be unbeatable no matter who the Democrats put up against them. However, as I said before, Pawlenty wouldn’t be a bad choice and neither would Sanford.
[...] Maybe…but methinks Mr. Hewitt underscores McCain’s establishment support, as reported quite recently by Robert Novak. If Novak is correct, McCain may build up a head of steam that overcomes the aversion many conservatives have towards him. But if Hewitt is right, and McCain gets the nomination anyway, we might just be in trouble in the general election. [...]