Comments on: Surge, Then Ebb http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Sat, 07 Apr 2012 09:00:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-186015 Mark Wed, 03 Jan 2007 18:20:14 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-186015 To be sure, I don't think it's the MAIN reason for the surge - the main reason is to clamp down on security. But it might be a necessary prerequisite, if Keegan is right... To be sure, I don’t think it’s the MAIN reason for the surge – the main reason is to clamp down on security. But it might be a necessary prerequisite, if Keegan is right…

]]> By: peter http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-186006 peter Wed, 03 Jan 2007 17:49:23 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-186006 I don't claim any expertise on military campaigns or tactics, but I'm skeptical that the surge is being executed to effect a withdrawal -- I don’t claim any expertise on military campaigns or tactics, but I’m skeptical that the surge is being executed to effect a withdrawal –

]]> By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-185991 Mark Wed, 03 Jan 2007 17:29:47 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-185991 Well, peter, we have a republic instead of a direct democracy precisely because the founders wanted to give our leaders space to lead, instead of being always beholden to the tyranny of the majority - but suppose I take you at your word and concede for the sake of argument that the American people want out, and they want out now - you still have to deal with the consequences of Keegan's last paragraph quoted above, where he states the necessity of increasing forces for a successful withdrawal (and believe me, the man is the very definition of an expert)... Well, peter, we have a republic instead of a direct democracy precisely because the founders wanted to give our leaders space to lead, instead of being always beholden to the tyranny of the majority – but suppose I take you at your word and concede for the sake of argument that the American people want out, and they want out now – you still have to deal with the consequences of Keegan’s last paragraph quoted above, where he states the necessity of increasing forces for a successful withdrawal (and believe me, the man is the very definition of an expert)…

]]> By: peter http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-185970 peter Wed, 03 Jan 2007 17:00:29 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-185970 To my eyes, George Bush is like the guy at the poker table who lost most of his chips and keeps throwing more on the table in hopes of somehow getting even. To quote Kenny Rogers: sometimes you gotta know when to fold them. The Bush administration has gotten nearly everything wrong in Iraq, from the rush to war to the present. There is no reason to think that it will be any different in the future. The President who said he will defer to the judgment of his military leaders is apparently ready to sack Casey (which is like Woody Allen’s response when his shrink tells him that Annie Hall is wrong for him: he gets another shrink). Despite the judgment of the ISG, world opinion, and an electoral mandate, Bush not only thumbs his nose but goes in the completely opposite direction and escalates. Maybe the better metaphor is being a bus passenger in “Crash,” where you can’t get off and you can’t control what the driver is doing. If you were a Democrat in Congress, would you enforce the will of the American people by refusing to fund an escalation? And if not, why not? To my eyes, George Bush is like the guy at the poker table who lost most of his chips and keeps throwing more on the table in hopes of somehow getting even. To quote Kenny Rogers: sometimes you gotta know when to fold them.

The Bush administration has gotten nearly everything wrong in Iraq, from the rush to war to the present. There is no reason to think that it will be any different in the future. The President who said he will defer to the judgment of his military leaders is apparently ready to sack Casey (which is like Woody Allen’s response when his shrink tells him that Annie Hall is wrong for him: he gets another shrink). Despite the judgment of the ISG, world opinion, and an electoral mandate, Bush not only thumbs his nose but goes in the completely opposite direction and escalates. Maybe the better metaphor is being a bus passenger in “Crash,” where you can’t get off and you can’t control what the driver is doing.

If you were a Democrat in Congress, would you enforce the will of the American people by refusing to fund an escalation? And if not, why not?

]]> By: too many steves http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-185951 too many steves Wed, 03 Jan 2007 15:30:32 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-185951 Yes, I saw that and should apologize for not making it clear my question is really intended for GWB. It seems to me this surge strategy has been the preferred (maybe only) plan since Rumsfeld resigned and it irritates me that we are waiting to implement it with the public excuse being that the President is off building consensus on the specifics of the plan, which, in circular fashion, I believe has already been decided and therefore just a show. It is as if we are in a long drawn out "trial balloon" exercise. It is all too Clinton-esque for my taste. Yes, I saw that and should apologize for not making it clear my question is really intended for GWB. It seems to me this surge strategy has been the preferred (maybe only) plan since Rumsfeld resigned and it irritates me that we are waiting to implement it with the public excuse being that the President is off building consensus on the specifics of the plan, which, in circular fashion, I believe has already been decided and therefore just a show. It is as if we are in a long drawn out “trial balloon” exercise. It is all too Clinton-esque for my taste.

]]> By: Mark http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-185938 Mark Wed, 03 Jan 2007 15:12:02 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-185938 too many steves, Keegan does cover that (albeit not in great detail): <em>A major consideration is where the troops are to be found. Some formations of the regular American army and some national guard formations remain within the United States, but much has already been deployed to Iraq and it may prove difficult to find the necessary soldiers. Also problematic is the task of transporting them and their equipment to the fighting zones. How are they to be moved and where are they to be based? Despite the deployment to Iraq already made and the number of units and formations elsewhere in the world (specifically in Afghanistan), the US Army and Marine Corps still maintain a large deployable reserve in America. There should be no difficulty in finding a regular or national guard army division or a marine division. Its equipment could be transported in the designated huge transport vehicles of its C-lift reserve fleet, while the personnel could be flown by the vast fleet of C-5 transports. The obvious point of entry is Kuwait, from which the invasion of Iraq was launched in 2003.</em> too many steves, Keegan does cover that (albeit not in great detail):

A major consideration is where the troops are to be found. Some formations of the regular American army and some national guard formations remain within the United States, but much has already been deployed to Iraq and it may prove difficult to find the necessary soldiers. Also problematic is the task of transporting them and their equipment to the fighting zones. How are they to be moved and where are they to be based?

Despite the deployment to Iraq already made and the number of units and formations elsewhere in the world (specifically in Afghanistan), the US Army and Marine Corps still maintain a large deployable reserve in America. There should be no difficulty in finding a regular or national guard army division or a marine division.

Its equipment could be transported in the designated huge transport vehicles of its C-lift reserve fleet, while the personnel could be flown by the vast fleet of C-5 transports. The obvious point of entry is Kuwait, from which the invasion of Iraq was launched in 2003.

]]> By: too many steves http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-185934 too many steves Wed, 03 Jan 2007 14:54:32 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-185934 By which I mean, where, from the available areas, will they come, at what cost, and on what timetable? It seems irrational to me to have all this discussion about Surge vs. No-Surge without being specific about those details. By which I mean, where, from the available areas, will they come, at what cost, and on what timetable? It seems irrational to me to have all this discussion about Surge vs. No-Surge without being specific about those details.

]]> By: too many steves http://informedspeculation.com/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/comment-page-1/#comment-185932 too many steves Wed, 03 Jan 2007 14:51:00 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/01/03/surge-then-ebb/#comment-185932 Where are these 40,000 - 50,000 troops coming from? Where are these 40,000 – 50,000 troops coming from?

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