Informed Speculation

…regarding the speech tonight.  This is from a Newsweek preview:

In a sense, the president’s challenge is the same as the Iraqi prime minister’s: to restore his credibility. To that end, Bush’s aides say a key part of the speech will be conceding past failures, as well as the disappointments and shortcomings of the current situation in Iraq. After all, the White House is well aware that we’ve tried troop escalations before in Iraq, to no avail. And we’ve also watched the Iraqis repeatedly fall short in delivering on their promises. “The touchstone for a lot of people, as it is for the president, is ‘What gives you the confidence that things will be different with the same cast of characters this time’,” says the senior Bush aide. “It’s a fair question.”

It is indeed a fair question–and one that isn’t easy to answer. The only way to show things will be different in Iraq is with results on the ground; all the rest is just talk. “If it comes across as more good after bad, the president won’t support it, much less the American people and the Congress,” the senior aide says. He adds that Bush will assure his audience that the president has pushed Maliki harder than ever before in hopes of turning things around.

…Bush will emphasize other new initiatives, including economic aid to follow the new security sweep and a fresh push to broaden Maliki’s base by pulling in more moderate Sunni and Shia leaders. Still, much of the speech will sound familiar. The White House says the president will explain the consequences of defeat and withdrawal: bolder terrorists, civil war, conflict throughout the region. And he will also explain what victory will look like: far messier than the clear ending to World War II’s fighting in Europe and Japan.

“It’s not peace and tranquility, it’s stability and a functioning Arab democracy in a very troubled part of the world,” the senior aide says. “But there will still be violence and turmoil.”

So the idea of a new, more moderate parliamentary coalition is not dead – yet…

The speech itself is at 8:00 p.m. Central…