Hillary Still Has Some Work Left To Do
Iowa is not enamored of the frontrunner, according to the latest Strategic Visions poll:
John Edwards 25%
Barack Obama 17%
Tom Vilsack 16%
Hillary Clinton 15%
Wow, Vilsack running ahead? That’s lame…but guess who is leading the Republicans? Yep, you knew it already:
Rudy Giuliani 25%
John McCain 21%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Mitt Romney 8%
Gingrich ahead of Romney? Doesn’t bode well for his candidacy, either…but The Politico doesn’t think Rudy’s running:
Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is finally scrambling to beat back a crippling perception that his bid for president isn’t quite serious. But even as he begins to hire aides and consultants, many of his New York supporters and critics, as well as neutral observers, see a repeat of his half-hearted, unfinished 2000 campaign for Senate.
“At this moment in history I do not believe he’s running for president; I just don’t believe it,” said Mike Long, chairman of the Conservative Party of New York State. “I don’t know of anyone who’s gotten a call saying, ‘I’m running, I need you to get behind me,’ same as happened before.”
“I’m having a real hard time believing the guy is taking it seriously,” said a former Guiliani aide, who said that he would love to see him become president. “In 2000 there was this feeling that he didn’t have to play by all the rules that little people have to play by, and I see that even more strongly now.”
Hmmm…well, as I’ve said many times, he must declare his intentions soon…
Influence of Iowa and New Hampshire aside, you really think that Giuliani, the pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-gun-control adulterer (several times over) could make a run at winning the delegates of Southern Bible Belt states?
Absolutely…poll after poll after poll puts Rudy in the lead. How can you ignore that? Leadership will trump personal life where Rudy is concerned…
How can I ignore that? Well, we’re 22 months out from the election, for one, and still a good year and a half out from the conventions. A lot can change in that time. Rudy’s going to face a lot of criticism in that time, if he ever decides to declare, not least of which would be what the heck qualifies him as some sort of foreign policy expert, as is claimed, after simply being mayor of NYC during 9/11.
Comrades,
Unbelievably (or, rather, believably for me) my wife has come out in full support mode for Obama. She’s put his image on her desk top, subscribed to his e-newsletter, and offered to support his campaign.
When I enquired why she would do this, she replied that she was going to support him because he was “different”. She (and apparently a LOT of her female co-workers) remarked that his lack of experience was precisely why they would vote for him, that it was time an “outsider” ran for president, a “minority” ran, etc. etc. etc. I was rady to puke.
I am hoping that this is an isolated instance of female hysteria, but i dunno…..
You better hope your wife doesn’t read this blog’s comments!…
Gingirch won’t be running. He will give his support to Romney. Thus Newt’s 15% actually goes to Romney, where that 21% right neck and neck with Guiliani and McCain.
Fargus, I guess it’s safe to assume that you were furious at the victory of the governor of Arkansas over a sitting president with the greatest foreign policy experience of any man to sit in the office since Eisenhower?
I don’t know who has claimed Giuliani is an expert, but I think a look at presidential candidates shows both parties have been plenty willing to vote for people with no foreign policy experience, and so has the general electorate.
Maybe Giuliani won’t get the nomination in the end, and he’ll certainly get his halo dirty if he runs, just like Obama. But given that more states like California, New Jersey and Florida (which is half Southern and half South New York) are talking about moving their primary dates up, I’d say the odds are starting to move in Giuliani’s favor. Besides, the Democrats are moving toward nominating a former first lady, a move usually reserved for term-limited segregationist governors in the Jim Crow era or Argentine dictators. In that kind of environment, does it really make sense to close our minds and declare certain things impossible because they’re unprecedented at this level?
You also have to take into account who Giuliani would be running against. McCain’s the only other big name, and he’s both old and loathed by many of the hardcore partisans. Romney? If social conservatives torpedo Giuliani, I don’t think they’ll jump to a Mormon guy who seems to take whatever position on abortion makes the most electoral sense at the time. Brownback, Huckabee, etc? I don’t see any of these guys catching fire.
In fact, I wasn’t furious. I was 11.
I don’t dispute that the electorate is capable of nominating somebody who’s not the best qualified of the candidates. Happens all the time. It’s just that I’d seen “mayor during 9/11″ translated roughly as “tough on national security and experienced in foreign policy,” and I don’t see that connection at all.
You may be right, and there may not be anybody else running who has half a chance of countering the rockstar factor. But all I’m saying is that even though you might get less socially conservative states earlier in the primaries, there’s a chance of some candidates sticking around and the dynamics shifting in spite of momentum, and there’s a potential for a real horse race to happen, you know?
Sure, there’s a potential for a horse race. The problem I had with your argument is you appeared to dismiss the notion of a horse race right off the bat, by assuming Giuliani simply had no chance.
As for Giuliani and foreign policy, I agree that we know very little about where he stands on the details. He won’t be able to run for president for long without spelling that stuff out a little more clearly.
I don’t agree that many people have assumed Giuliani must be a foreign-policy “expert” because of Sept. 11. But I do think there is a certain reasonable assumption that he won’t shrink from the war on terror, given what he went through that day and afterward. Similarly, his willingness to do things like toss Arafat out on his ear from Lincoln Center suggests to me he has the instincts that I like. Quite frankly, that kind of thing tells me more about him than any pledge he could make on the campaign.
Mark,
I don’t think she even knows this blog exists. Her main forte in politics is to find out who I am supporting and vote for their opponent. She believes that by cancelling out my vote she is somehow helping the world….. go figure.
Personally, if I had the money, I’d have her in divorce court in a NY minute, but I don’t, so that’s that for now.
She’s a might vindictive, to be charitable, and prone to fits of leftist rage. Honestly, I don’y know how Mary Mapes does it. Myself, i thank the Gods every day for the gift of Bourbon, and seperate bedrooms.
Regardless, if my wife and her gurrlfrens are all agog over Obama at this point, just how big a row could he hoe in the big field, come the spring? It worries me mightily, although there is hope that the Dems will fracture like they did in 1860 and throw away their votes on multiple candidates.
Respects,
Gwedd… too funny. (Maybe not to you.) Rolling on the floor laughing…
Trey,
Yeah, thanks…
What’s really disturbing is realising that we’re coming up on our 22nd anniversary. I’m the oldest of 6, she’s an only child. It’s made for an interesting family. My oldest daughter, a confirmed atheist, has declared her major in Religious Studies. She’s a card-carrying Republican at a predominately leftist private college. My son dropped out of school to persue his dream of becoming the next thrash-metal guitar God. He’s living on my couch while he ‘finds himself”. i offered to locate him with my GPS device, but that didn’t seem to register well with him. sigh. Good luck with that one, son…. My youngest will be celebrating her 9th birthday this summer, and wants to visit DC instead of Disneyland. She’s recently started reading a Biography of Robert E Lee, and decided she’s torn between learning more about the Civil War or Barbie Fairytopia stuff.
Seriously, Trey: I can’t make this stuff up. All I know for certain is that, after fathering three children, i understand why my father has no hair. And I forgive him for drinking. makes sense now.
Respects,
Hillary stays with Chronically cheating sexual deviant
Bill because she would not have the career she has without him. Codependent woman are not presidential material. We need leaders as our president. Someone who can stand on their own. We need Newt Gingrich for president.