If It’s McCain Vs. Giuliani, The SoCons Will Take Giuliani
So says the estimable John McIntyre:
There is an assumption by many that Giuliani is un-nominatable as a Republican for President given his less than conservative positions on many social issues. Charlie Cook summed up the conventional Washington wisdom on Giuliani’s chances with his statement in the Washington Post several months ago that he’ll “win the Tour de France before Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination.”
But the conventional wisdom on Giuliani’s ability to capture the nomination is wrong. Not only can Giuliani win the GOP nomination, but as the Republican field sits today he has to be considered the favorite.
As Republicans look to their standard bearer in what will be a post-9/11 and post-George W. Bush world, the usual handicapping yard-sticks that may have worked in the ’80′s and 90′s won’t work this cycle.
Leadership is going to be the single most important issue to Republican voters and this is almost certainly Giuliani’s strongest asset. As long as McCain remains Giuliani’s chief rival for the nomination, Rudy will hold an advantage for the simple reason that conservatives like Rudy Giuliani and do not like John McCain. Leadership and the conservative animus toward McCain are why Giuliani has the edge.
The strategic box Giuliani puts McCain in is significant, especially since one of McCain’s selling points to Republicans was always going to be that he could deliver a win in the general election. But the obvious tactic to employ against Giuliani, trying to undermine him with conservative base voters by attacking him on social issues, also undercuts McCain’s ability to win the general election, which in turn, undermines his strongest selling point to Republicans.
The nomination race is very much up in the air, however (of course! It’s still early 2007), though I agree that Rudy is the frontrunner; the latest NH numbers have McCain up 1…
Comrades,
JawaReport has a good brief on Giuliani, and how he needs to seriously address his stance on the 2nd Ammendment. If he gets some good advice, and comes clean about his views and manages to fall away from his gun-grabbing ideas of his earlier days, then many, many folks will embrace him.
Rudy’s biggest plus is his demonstrable leadership abilities. Anyone who remembers watching the news after 9/11 remembers his unflappable resolve, his ability to get things going, clean up the site, get the city moving along and folks back to work, etc.
It was a hell of a shock to the nation, but more importantly to those who lived in and around NYC. They SAW Rudy out there talking to folks, making things happen, they REMEMBER how he made them feel that some one was in charge, that somehow, someway, things were gonna turn out alright, and we’d all get through this together, maybe even become stronger in the process.
Basically, Rudy delivered, and folks remember that. If he cleans up his anti-gun stance, and just speaks plain like he always seems to do, the nomination is his to lose, and I suspect that he will rapidly become Hillary’s worst nightmare on the campaign trail, becuase, no matter where you were from, you remember Rudy making things alright, getting the city running again, and by heavens, if he can do that for New York, just think what he can do for the country!
Anyways, thats how I see it…
Respects,
Here are my, high-level, criteria for evaluating a candidate. These are in descending order of importance:
1. Demonstrated leadership ability.
2. Security.
3. Fiscal matters.
4. Social concerns.
Rudy in a landslide for this voter. I like Romney, but between the practical reality that he can’t win nationally and his pandering on social issues I must give the nod to Rudy.