Informed Speculation

They certainly don’t seem to hurt him in Florida, but the Gallup Poll takes a closer look and finds a mixed bag:

If Giuliani lost the support of all those who say they would rule him out as a candidate, his eight-point lead would be erased, and the race would be about tied (45% for Giuliani vs. 47% for McCain). However, if Giuliani were to lose those voters plus all who say they would be “less likely” to support him because of his views, then McCain would have a 27-point lead over Giuliani, 60% vs. 33%. Of course, these numbers represent the high end of Giuliani’s potential losses over the issue, and assume that all of his former supporters would switch to McCain rather than another Republican in the race. Still, it provides one indication of the magnitude of the risk Giuliani faces given his positions on certain issues.

Whether Giuliani’s positions ultimately derail his candidacy for the nomination partly depends on how much he is able to finesse and fine-tune those views to soften their impact with Republican voters in the months ahead. Although a majority of Republicans tell Gallup they are pro-life (57% according to a Jan. 6-8, 2006 poll) and are against same-sex civil unions (also 57%, as of May 2-4, 2004) sizable minorities share Giuliani’s alternative perspectives.

Additionally, Giuliani has formidable image strengths, which could well compensate for his potential weaknesses on social policy. As a Jan. 25-28, 2007 Gallup Poll shows, Giuliani is perceived extraordinarily well among Republicans on a number of personality dimensions. Compared with McCain, Giuliani is selected by a huge margin (74% vs. 21%) as the more likable candidate; he is also preferred as the stronger leader (59% vs. 34%), and, importantly, as having the better chance of beating the Democratic candidate in the general election (55% v. 38%). 

Without a doubt, there are some voters who don’t know Rudy has supported civil unions and so forth, and that when they find out, they won’t support him.  There are a far greater number of people, and the polling data supports this, that don’t see this as a problem with their support.

THe bottom line: a candidate campaigns, and part of that (most of that?) is selling himself.  Rudy knows he faces special obstacles, and he’ll have to focus on selling himself in such a way that he can capture those who might be on the fence.  It’s all part of the game…