Informed Speculation

The latest (last?) battle for Baghdad has begun:

The long-awaited Baghdad security operation has begun, the top United States military spokesman in Iraq said today, also confirming that a transport helicopter had come down near Baghdad. He declined to comment on any casualties.

The Iraqi general who is leading the security drive took over the operation headquarters on Monday, but there had been no announcement until today that the sweep, the third attempt to crush violence in nine months, was under way.

“It is ongoing as we speak,” said Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell, the spokesman for the American military. “The implementation of the prime minister’s plan has already begun and will be fully implemented at a later date, having all the parts and pieces that he wants.

“But portions are already being put in place, and we’ll continue to put more into place as the forces arrive and the assets become available.”

On Tuesday, few signs indicated that anything had changed on the streets of Baghdad, aside from some new checkpoints scattered around the city. An aggressive clearing operation began Tuesday night in a Sunni neighborhood in eastern Baghdad. Iraqi officials said it was part of the new crackdown, but similar operations have been under way for weeks.

American military officials said one large event to signal the start of the crackdown was unlikely.

The American military said today that Iraqi security forces and American troops cleared neighborhoods in northeast Baghdad of insurgent activity on Tuesday, detaining 20 suspected terrorists.

Of course, most of the Sadr loyalists and the smarter insurgents are laying very low at the moment, but that’s an unalloyed good, isn’t it? They may return, of course, but if conditions can change sufficiently, they might find it harder to do so in the future.

And so it goes, with our hopes and prayers…