Informed Speculation

As telegraphed yesterday, an agreement was reached with North Korea, one of potentially historic significance.  Some details:

North Korea agreed Tuesday after arduous talks to shut down its main nuclear reactor and eventually dismantle its atomic weapons program, just four months after the communist state shocked the world by testing a nuclear bomb.

The deal marks the first concrete plan for disarmament in more than three years of six-nation negotiations, and could potentially herald a new era of cooperation in the region with the North’s longtime foes _ the United States and Japan _ also agreeing to discuss normalizing relations with Pyongyang.

Under the deal, the North will receive initial aid equal to 50,000 tons heavy fuel oil within 60 days for shutting down and sealing its main nuclear reactor and related facilities at Yongbyon, north of the capital, to be confirmed by international inspectors.

For irreversibly disabling the reactor and declaring all nuclear programs, the North will eventually receive another 950,000 tons in aid.

The agreement was read to all delegates in a conference room at a Chinese state guesthouse and Chinese envoy Wu Dawei asked if there were any objections. When none were made, the officials all stood and applauded.

The main U.S. nuclear envoy said Washington was satisfied with an agreement on initial steps for North Korea to disarm but called it just the start of the process.

“Obviously we have a long way to go, but we’re very pleased with this agreement,” Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told reporters. “It’s a very solid step forward.”

North Korea and United States also will embark on talks aimed at resolving disputes and restarting diplomatic relations, Wu said. The Korean peninsula has technically remained in a state of war for more than a half-century since the Korean War ended in a 1953 cease-fire.

The United States will begin the process of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state and also on ending U.S. trade sanctions, but no deadlines was set, according to the agreement.

Hill said that Washington also had pledged to resolve financial restrictions against a bank where North Korea held accounts within a month.

We may never know what brought Pyongyang back to the table, but I can think of two possibilities: one, the omnipresent economic pressure on Kim’s isolated regime, and two, the fact that North Korea’s nuke was pretty much a dud…if I come across any interesting analysis on this issue, we’ll revisit it…

UPDATE 8:51 a.m.: There are some clouds on the horizon:

The accord sets a 60-day deadline for North Korea to accomplish the first steps toward disarmament, and leaves until an undefined moment — and to another negotiation — the actual removal of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and the fuel manufactured to produce them.

Under the agreement, the first part of the aid — 50,000 tons of fuel oil, or an equivalent value of economic or humanitarian aid — would be provided by South Korea, Russia, China and the United States; in the case of the United States , that would require congressional approval, which is likely to be difficult to get.

For disabling the reactor and declaring all nuclear programs, the North will eventually receive another 950,000 tons in aid. Further negotiations are to begin on March 19 in Beijing.

The agreement was read to all delegates in a conference room at a Chinese state guesthouse and Chinese envoy Wu Dawei asked if there were any objections. When none were made, the officials all stood and applauded.

But North Korea has sidestepped previous agreements, and is thought to have many mountainside tunnels where it can hide projects.

The deal marks the first concrete plan for disarmament in more than three years of six-nation negotiations.

The deal places new requirements on both North Korea and the United States within the 60-day period. Besides closing and sealing Yongbyon , North Korea will “discuss” with the other nations a list of all its nuclear programs, including plutonium extracted from used fuel rods. International inspectors are to verify the process.

The ultimate goal is the complete denuclearization of North Korea, and the next round of talks is expected to begin to wade into the thicket of disputes over how to carry this out.

The steps outlined require the North to provide a complete list of its nuclear programs, including an inventory of its plutonium stockpile. It must also disable all nuclear facilities, including “graphite-moderated reactors and reprocessing facilities.”

I suppose the optimist would respond that all journeys begin with a single step…