Informed Speculation

We all know there have been some highly publicized car bombings, and of course, the horrible introduction of chlorine gas (I’m glad to see one source of this has been discovered, though of course there are probably more), but what’s the big picture? StrategyPage takes a look:

At least a hundred, of the six million people in Baghdad, were killed by Sunni Arab terrorist attacks in the last four days. The two week old “Battle of Baghdad” has forced Sunni and Shia gangs to stay in hiding. That has helped the terror bombing operations, as these depend on stealth and surprise. The army and police catch many of the bomber vehicles at check points, but there are so many attempts that the terrorists can still carry out a few successful attacks a week. However, recent attacks appear to be of the “use it or lose it” variety. The more intense security operations inside Baghdad have uncovered bomb workshops and safe houses, meaning that more bombers will have to come in from the suburbs. But the suburbs are under attack as well. So desperate were the Sunni terrorists in the Baghdad suburb of Tarmiya, that they attacked an American outpost in the town. Three suicide car bombs were used, as well as dozens of gunmen. Two Americans were killed, but most of the attackers did [sic] as well, with the rest fleeing after their attack collapsed under American firepower. The Battle for Baghdad has seen dozens of these temporary American combat outposts set up, with the expectation that the terrorists would be tempted to try and overrun one of them. The failed attack at  Tarmiya does nothing for terrorist morale. 

While most of the Battle for Baghdad has concentrated on Sunni terrorists, American and Iraqi troops were also seen surrounding and taking over the headquarters of Muqtada Al Sadr, the head of the Mahdi army (a coalition of pro-Iran Shia militias). Sadar, and most of his henchmen, have fled to Iran, until the Battle for Baghdad is over. The Mahdi army officially denies that Sadr is out of the country, but no one has seen Sadr inside Iraq in weeks. Same thing with many of Sadr’s key associates. The Shia militiamen are also off the streets. American troops were seen removing documents and other items from Sadrs [sic] headquarters. 

Despite the jump in terrorist bombings in the last few days, the death toll in Baghdad, since the security operations began two weeks ago, have declined by over 70 percent.

Hopeful signs…I renew my call to Nancy Pelosi, John Murtha, and other opponents of the surge to give it a chance.  A 70% reduction in deaths is substantial and encouraging..