Zogby: Obama Gains, Rudy Widens Lead
I’ve been wondering when Barack Obama might start to show a little movement – well, one poll does not a movement make (ouch! That’s weak), but the latest Zogby results have to make Hillary a bit nervous:
Among those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary or caucus for President, Clinton leads with 33% support, up 4% from our last telephone survey in early January. However, Obama has made dramatic gains in the last six weeks, moving from 14% support to 25% backing. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edward is a distant third, winning 12% support. One in five said they were undecided about which Democratic candidate to support.
On the Republican side, Rudy has upped his lead over McCain, but not dramatically:
On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has extended his lead over McCain, leading 29% to 20% in our latest polling. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who had a successful career in business before entering politics, placed a distant third on the GOP side of the fence. Nearly one in five Republican primary or caucus participants (19%) said they were unsure about whom to support.
Giuliani led McCain in our early January survey, 21% to 17%.
No real surprises, but another indicator that we should be in for one hell of a campaign season on both sides of the aisle…
UPDATE 7:39 p.m.: Talk about burying the lede; there WAS one big surprise, and I initially missed it: check out Obama in the general election matchups.
The Zogby International survey also tested several combinations of possible 2008 presidential general election match–ups, pairing the top three candidates from each party:
| Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40% | Giuliani 40%, Obama 46% | Giuliani 46%, Edwards 40% |
| McCain 47%, Clinton 39% | McCain 40%, Obama 44% | McCain 47%, Edwards 38% |
| Romney 35%, Clinton 45% | Romney 29%, Obama 51% | Romney 32%, Edwards 47% |
Hmmm…I’d certainly like to see that result confirmed by a second poll somewhere. Seems like an outlier…
Given Zogby’s recent history, I wouldn’t read too much into any of his results, especially when they conclude Hillary leads Obama siolidly in the Democratic nomination, but the two of them flip places when running against Giuliani. Something smells fishy about that, unless independents are just bonkers for Obama (certainly a possibility, but again, given Zogby’s reputation, I wouldn’t bet my shoelaces on it).
His survey also shows Obama leading Clinton among black voters, which would seem the reverse of what most other polls have shown. So again, either it’s an outlier, or perhaps Zogby is finally spotting Obamamania coming through.
go HILARY