Comments on: WaPo/ABC: Rudy Up – BIG http://informedspeculation.com/2007/02/27/wapoabc-rudy-up-big/ Refunds Cheerfully Given To All Who Disagree Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:53:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: mikebdot http://informedspeculation.com/2007/02/27/wapoabc-rudy-up-big/comment-page-1/#comment-247096 mikebdot Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:26:16 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/02/27/wapoabc-rudy-up-big/#comment-247096 Giuliani had an affair too, so there's always that similarity...of course, the attention of the press corpse still seems to be on the Clenis...stupid liberal media. Giuliani had an affair too, so there’s always that similarity…of course, the attention of the press corpse still seems to be on the Clenis…stupid liberal media.

]]> By: Dennis http://informedspeculation.com/2007/02/27/wapoabc-rudy-up-big/comment-page-1/#comment-247033 Dennis Wed, 28 Feb 2007 13:21:49 +0000 http://decision08.net/2007/02/27/wapoabc-rudy-up-big/#comment-247033 The Obama numbers among black voters are very interesting, since they jibe with that earlier Zogby poll. Interesting that they moved that way <i>after</i> some so-called "black leaders" started making noises that he's not black enough. I'm starting to wonder if Giuliani's appeal might be somewhat similar to Bill Clinton's in 1992. Bill Clinton was clearly more conservative than his party on several showy issues, the death penalty being a key one. Yet Democrats, hungry for victory, voted for Clinton anyway, because they thought he could win. The same might be true among Republicans who might otherwise reject Giuliani. Of course, there's something sui generis about both Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, too - they both have a carismatic appeal that can make you forget about some differences. My own guess is that if anything sinks Giuliani now, it won't be abortion or gay marriage; it'll be gun rights. If I were McCain, I'd be doing everything shy of showing up at speeches packing heat, just to show how pro-gun I am. I agree with you on Romney, Mark. I don't begrugde the notion of a social conservative candidate, but the more I see of Romney, the more the guy screams total artifice to me. He's become the social conservative candidate because he saw it as an opening, not because of principles. If a social conservative is the nominee, I'd rather it be someone like Huckabee or Brownback, who at least believe what they say. (Granted, I think if either of those guys is the nominee, he'll be slaughtered Alf Landon-style in the general election, but that's a different issue.) The Obama numbers among black voters are very interesting, since they jibe with that earlier Zogby poll. Interesting that they moved that way after some so-called “black leaders” started making noises that he’s not black enough.

I’m starting to wonder if Giuliani’s appeal might be somewhat similar to Bill Clinton’s in 1992. Bill Clinton was clearly more conservative than his party on several showy issues, the death penalty being a key one. Yet Democrats, hungry for victory, voted for Clinton anyway, because they thought he could win. The same might be true among Republicans who might otherwise reject Giuliani.

Of course, there’s something sui generis about both Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, too – they both have a carismatic appeal that can make you forget about some differences.

My own guess is that if anything sinks Giuliani now, it won’t be abortion or gay marriage; it’ll be gun rights. If I were McCain, I’d be doing everything shy of showing up at speeches packing heat, just to show how pro-gun I am.

I agree with you on Romney, Mark. I don’t begrugde the notion of a social conservative candidate, but the more I see of Romney, the more the guy screams total artifice to me. He’s become the social conservative candidate because he saw it as an opening, not because of principles. If a social conservative is the nominee, I’d rather it be someone like Huckabee or Brownback, who at least believe what they say. (Granted, I think if either of those guys is the nominee, he’ll be slaughtered Alf Landon-style in the general election, but that’s a different issue.)

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