We have a LOOOOOOOONG way to go.

For cryin’ out loud – how do I know Rudy’s about to win? Because people are throwing up any ol’ crap already, and hoping it sticks (and guess what? None of it is)…

If New York Sen. Hillary Clinton seeks the nomination for President next year, she gets the support of 37 percent of Democrats nationwide, followed by:
Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt with 13 percent;
Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 12 percent;
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 8 percent;
North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Florida Sen. Bob Graham with 4 percent each;
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich with 3 percent each;
Rev. Al Sharpton with 2 percent.

But let’s look at March 1999. According to this poll, Bush was already the clear leader among Republicans with 52 percent to Elizabeth Dole’s 20 percent. Gore had 58 percent of Democrats, and Bradley had 21 percent.

So what do these results tell about nomination races at this stage of the game? It seems to me that if someone’s got a clear, solid lead, he or she is unlikely to lose, as we saw in the 2000 races. If no one’s got a clear lead, anyone can break out of the pack, as we saw in 2004.

Giuliani’s lead right now is somewhere in between those two models, which is why he can’t be considered inevitable, but neither can he be dismissed as a temporary blip. What has to be unnerving for the McCain campaign is the surging nature of Giuliani’s poll lead of late; it’s not inconceivable that he could develop one of those auras of inevitability if it continues, and then start collecting the money and endorsements that naturally follow.

Now it’s possible Giuliani could be heading toward a Dean-style flameout – just when he starts looking inevitable, voters pull back. But it’s worth recalling that Giuliani’s appeal so far has been personal – he’s the law ‘n’ order guy who stood tall on Sept. 11. Dean’s appeal had little to do with the man – no one knew who he was – so much as full-throated attack on President Bush and the war in Iraq. I suspect the lack of knowledge of who Dean was made it easier for him to be caricaturized and destroyed. I don’t think that will be likely to happen to Giuliani, who has a well-established political persona.